Apple (AAPL.US) has unveiled its latest iPhone lineup, potentially securing the ticket for the consumer tech giant's return to the pinnacle of market value, and the destination is remarkably close. Recent share price momentum has brought its market capitalization to within just 2% of the $5 trillion threshold. Even more striking, Apple now sits less than 10% away from surpassing Nvidia (NVDA.US) to claim the title of the world's most valuable company. While Apple's business growth currently lags behind Nvidia's, the valuation gap is steadily narrowing. Nvidia shareholders need not fret excessively, as the stock has climbed 26% over the past year. However, Apple's shares have surged more than 40% during the same period. The momentum clearly favors Apple, and this is all unfolding before a breakthrough device even hits the market.

Turning the tide

For over a decade, Apple has adhered to a predictable cycle: achieving double-digit revenue growth in fiscal years that introduce revolutionary iPhone models, followed by two years—or in recent times, even longer—of single-digit or negative growth, settling for incremental smartphone upgrades. Apple is set to conclude its 2026 fiscal year at the end of this month, marking its first double-digit revenue growth in five years. The first three quarters, ending in June, have already demonstrated robust performance. The new iPhone 18 series, launched on Friday, should solidify this positive trajectory as the fiscal year closes. Yet, the narrative extends beyond this. Apple is preparing to do something it hasn't done in 14 years, and it all hinges on its most expensive iPhone ever.

The high-stakes launch

The iPhone Duo, slated for release on October 23, will begin pre-orders a week prior, with a starting price of at least $1,999. This represents a premium of $800 over the iPhone 18 Pro, which debuted just last weekend. It's tempting to be skeptical about such a costly device. Apple has previously stumbled when pricing exceeded consumer comfort. The Vision Pro mixed-reality headset failed to capture a broad audience due to its steep $3,699 price point. Historical examples like the Lisa, Power Mac G4 Cube, and HomePod also illustrate Apple's past struggles when testing price elasticity. However, some analysts believe the iPhone Duo will discover its niche. As the first foldable iPhone, it collapses to the size of a passport, earning significant style appeal. Leading wireless carriers are expected to continue subsidizing phone purchases through multi-year contracts, a condition lacking in Apple's previous high-priced failures. As long as the iPhone Duo avoids major defects at launch—such as a fragile folding screen—Apple is poised for exceptional sales in the 2027 fiscal year. Analysts already project 10.5% revenue growth for Apple next year. If realized, this would mark the first time since the 2012 fiscal year that Apple achieves two consecutive years of double-digit revenue growth. That would be a narrative worth unfolding.