The valuation of innovative drug companies is fundamentally anchored to their pipeline value, and for RemeGen, the PD-1/VEGF bispecific antibody RC148—its core asset in the tumor immunotherapy arena—has been a focal point for capital markets regarding clinical progress and commercial potential. On September 15, the Phase II clinical data of RC148, jointly developed by RemeGen and AbbVie, as a first-line treatment for squamous and non-squamous non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC), was presented as an oral report at the World Conference on Lung Cancer. The study enrolled patients with unresectable Stage IIIB/IIIC or Stage IV disease without driver gene mutations, divided into two independent cohorts: squamous and non-squamous. Results showed that in the 10mg/kg dose group, the objective response rate (ORR) reached 90.0% for squamous NSCLC patients and 75.9% for non-squamous patients. Even in the PD-L1-negative (TPS<1%) subgroup, the ORR for squamous and non-squamous patients reached 93.3% and 71.4%, respectively, showing no significant efficacy attenuation. In terms of safety, no grade 3 or higher bleeding events were observed in the 10mg dose regimen, with overall safety controllable and demonstrating differentiated advantages compared to similar products.
On the commercial potential front, we utilized the industry-standard risk-adjusted net present value (rNPV) model, combined with publicly available clinical data, competitive landscape, and commercialization expectations, to estimate the pipeline's intrinsic value and provide a reference valuation benchmark for the market. The core logic of rNPV valuation is to discount the pipeline's future lifecycle cash flows to the present after multiple risk adjustments. The formula is: peak sales × clinical success probability × discount factor. Peak sales = total target patient population × expected peak penetration rate × market share × annual treatment cost × clinical data quality coefficient × commercialization rights coefficient.
Regarding clinical success probability, according to publicly available information from RemeGen, the Phase III clinical trial applications for RC148 combined with chemotherapy as a first-line treatment for squamous and non-squamous NSCLC have been approved in China. Additionally, the second-line NSCLC indication has received Breakthrough Therapy Designation from the CDE. The overseas partner AbbVie has also initiated global Phase III clinical research for the product in first-line NSCLC, indicating the pipeline has advanced to the Phase III stage. Based on industry-standard clinical success rate grading, RC148 qualifies as a me-better class bispecific antibody, with a Phase III clinical success probability set at 0.50.
Regarding the total patient population, RC148 primarily targets advanced NSCLC indications. According to data from the National Cancer Center, approximately 1.0606 million new lung cancer cases were reported in China in 2022, with NSCLC accounting for about 85%, corresponding to roughly 901,500 annual new cases. Approximately 75% of NSCLC patients are diagnosed at locally advanced or metastatic stages. Among these, patients with negative driver genes such as EGFR and ALK, suitable for immunotherapy combined with anti-angiogenic therapy, account for about 65% of advanced NSCLC cases, corresponding to an annual new target patient population of about 440,000. Considering the prolonged survival of advanced patients, the domestic stock target patient population suitable for this treatment is estimated at around 800,000. Beyond the core NSCLC indication, RC148 is also advancing clinical research in solid tumor indications such as gastric cancer and colorectal cancer, with potential to further expand the patient base. This estimate is based solely on the core NSCLC indication.
In terms of penetration rate, referencing the mature penetration rate of approximately 60% for PD-1 monoclonal antibodies in advanced NSCLC in China, PD-1/VEGF bispecific antibodies, as an upgraded immunotherapy option with superior response rates, survival benefits, and safety, are expected to capture about 30% of the immunotherapy market share at maturity, corresponding to a peak penetration rate of approximately 18% across all target patients. Regarding market share, RC148 is a Fast-follow product in the PD-1/VEGF bispecific antibody segment. Currently, key players in this domestic segment include Akeso's marketed ivonescimab, as well as Kelun-Biotech's SKB118 and 3SBio's SSGJ-707 in late clinical stages, with main competitors numbering 2-3, not yet reaching a red ocean landscape. As a leading innovative drug company in China, RemeGen possesses a tumor disease sales network covering hospitals nationwide and a mature academic promotion system. RC148's clinical data stands out among domestic bispecific antibodies, and AbbVie's global rights acquisition validates its clinical value, providing significant channel advantages and differentiated competitiveness. Considering the competitive landscape and commercial capabilities, a 40% market share assumption is assigned to RC148.
Regarding annual treatment cost, the currently marketed PD-1/VEGF bispecific antibody ivonescimab, after medical insurance negotiations, has a standard-dose annual treatment cost of approximately 140,000 yuan. Subsequent domestic bispecific antibody products typically adopt a follow-on pricing strategy, with prices usually at 70%-80% of the first-mover product's price. Given that RC148 is a dual-target innovative drug with certain clinical data advantages, and as a domestic product needing to adapt to the medical insurance payment system, its estimated annual treatment cost after medical insurance negotiations upon launch is around 110,000 yuan. In terms of clinical data quality, based on clinical progress disclosed by RemeGen, RC148 has only published Phase II non-randomized, single-arm study results to date, and overall efficacy has not yet been validated by randomized controlled trials. According to assessment criteria, based on single-arm trial data, the clinical data quality coefficient is set at 0.60.
Regarding commercialization rights, RC148 is a Class 1 innovative drug independently developed by RemeGen, holding complete development, production, and commercialization rights in Greater China. Furthermore, RemeGen has a mature proprietary oncology commercialization team, eliminating the need for external sales profit-sharing. In January 2026, RemeGen licensed the global rights outside Greater China to AbbVie, receiving upfront payments, milestone payments, and sales royalties. This estimate covers only the Greater China market, with overseas rights value excluded from this rNPV calculation. According to assessment criteria, the commercialization rights coefficient is set at 0.95.
Based on the above parameters, RC148's peak annual sales in Greater China are estimated at approximately 3.6 billion yuan. In terms of discount factor, as a mature large-scale innovative drug company in China, RemeGen's overall pipeline risk is moderate, with a corresponding discount rate of 12%. From a timeline perspective, RC148 is expected to receive market approval around 2030. Typically, innovative drugs require a 5-7 year market ramp-up period to reach peak sales, with peak sales expected around 2036, approximately 10 years from the current point. Using the compound discount formula, the discount factor is approximately 0.31. Combined with the 0.50 clinical success probability, the final risk-adjusted net present value (rNPV) for RC148's Greater China pipeline is approximately 560 million yuan.
Disclaimer: The peak sales, risk-adjusted net present value, and other data in this article are model estimates based on publicly available information and a series of subjective assumptions, intended solely to illustrate the valuation logic. They do not represent the company's official forecasts nor constitute any investment advice. Key parameters such as clinical success probability, penetration rate, market share, and annual treatment cost involve significant uncertainty, and actual results may differ materially from estimates. Investors should make independent judgments and bear their own investment risks.