Russian President Vladimir Putin has indicated that the federal budget currently being drafted for 2027 will aim to keep the deficit at approximately 2% of the country's Gross Domestic Product. The budget calculations are based on a conservative oil price assumption of around $50 per barrel, with social security, public safety, and defense capability building continuing to receive priority funding.

The deficit target is higher than the one set in previous medium-term planning. Speaking at an economic affairs meeting on September 17, Putin stated that a deficit of roughly 2% of GDP is generally manageable, and the government will arrange its revenues and expenditures based on cautious energy price expectations. The 2027 budget uses an oil price of about $50 per barrel as its calculation basis, a figure Putin described as "very conservative" but one that enhances the budget's reliability. This new target exceeds the plan for 2027 outlined in the previous 2026–2028 budget framework. The earlier framework anticipated a federal budget deficit of about 1.3% of GDP for 2027, primarily financed through increased government borrowing.

The upward revision of the deficit ratio suggests that the pace of fiscal consolidation may be more moderate than originally planned, given slowing economic growth and continued priority spending. However, the federal budget deficit differs in scope from the consolidated budget deficit, which includes regional governments and extra-budgetary funds. According to a survey of 33 institutional economists conducted in early September, the market expects Russia's consolidated budget deficit for 2027 to be around 2.6% of GDP.

Oil and gas revenues remain a key variable for budget balance. The Russian government expects hydrocarbon revenues to increase in the coming months, supported by a recent uptick in international oil prices, which would also help replenish the National Wealth Fund. Russia's federal budget recorded a surplus of 606 billion rubles in August, providing some buffer for the year's fiscal position. The $50 per barrel budget benchmark is lower than the $56 per barrel average Urals oil price forecast for 2027 by the surveyed economists. If actual prices exceed the budget assumption, oil and gas revenues and fiscal reserves could receive additional support; conversely, unfavorable changes in energy export prices, output volumes, or settlement conditions could still push financing needs higher.

Low growth and high interest rates constrain fiscal space. The government projects Russia's economy will grow by about 1% in 2026. Market institutions are more cautious, with the September survey showing median GDP growth forecasts of 0.5% for 2026 and 1.2% for 2027. Inflationary pressures have not fully subsided either. The Central Bank of Russia kept its benchmark interest rate at 14% in September, projecting inflation of 6% to 7% in 2026, easing to around 4% by 2027. The central bank has also noted that if the new medium-term budget plan corresponds to a higher structural deficit, monetary policy may need to remain tighter. Putin stated that the 2027 budget will prioritize fulfilling social commitments, ensuring citizen safety, and strengthening defense capabilities. With relatively limited revenue growth, the balance between these rigid expenditures and the deficit control target will be a key point of focus until the draft budget is submitted to the State Duma.