Everbright Futures Daily Agricultural Commodity Market Report - September 16

Deep News
Sep 16

In the oilseed and protein meal sector, Tuesday saw CBOT soybean futures close higher, following a monthly industry report that revealed a slower-than-expected pace of August soybean crushing, which propelled US soybean meal futures up by 2.5%. NOPA data showed US soybean crushings in August at 205.456 million bushels, down 5.2% month-over-month but up 8.2% year-over-year. Crude oil prices continued their ascent on Tuesday, as the suspension of Saudi Arabian Red Sea crude oil export loadings intensified concerns that disruptions to this critical oil export route could persist for several weeks. Official Brazilian data indicated the country's 2026/27 soybean crop is projected at 181.64 million tonnes, a 0.7% increase from the previous year. Domestic protein meal markets traded on the weaker side, with the market digesting the bearish impact of the September supply-demand report. With weekly soybean crushings exceeding 2.2 million tonnes last week and expected to surpass 2.3 million tonnes this week, along with September soybean arrivals around 10 million tonnes, supply remains at elevated levels. Domestic soybean meal supply is ample, while expectations for higher costs are rising; attention should be paid to capital flows.

In the fats and oils sector, Tuesday saw CBOT soybean futures close higher, following a monthly industry report that revealed a slower-than-expected pace of August soybean crushing, which propelled US soybean meal futures up by 2.5%. NOPA data showed US soybean crushings in August at 205.456 million bushels, down 5.2% month-over-month but up 8.2% year-over-year. Crude oil prices continued their ascent on Tuesday, as the suspension of Saudi Arabian Red Sea crude oil export loadings intensified concerns that disruptions to this critical oil export route could persist for several weeks. Official Brazilian data indicated the country's 2026/27 soybean crop is projected at 181.64 million tonnes, a 0.7% increase from the previous year. Domestic protein meal markets traded on the weaker side, with the market digesting the bearish impact of the September supply-demand report. With weekly soybean crushings exceeding 2.2 million tonnes last week and expected to surpass 2.3 million tonnes this week, along with September soybean arrivals around 10 million tonnes, supply remains at elevated levels. Domestic soybean meal supply is ample, while expectations for higher costs are rising; attention should be paid to capital flows.

In the live hog sector, Tuesday saw hog futures continue their downward trajectory, with the main 2611 contract fluctuating lower during the session, closing down 2.09% at 11,235 yuan per tonne. On the spot front, data from Zhuochuang showed the national average daily hog price at 10.82 yuan per kilogram, up 0.02 yuan from the previous day. In the benchmark delivery area of Henan, the average hog price was 10.9 yuan per kilogram, down 0.06, while Guangdong and Liaoning saw gains, Sichuan was flat, and Shandong declined. Supply and demand fundamentals remained largely unchanged in most regions, keeping hog prices stable. Some areas saw slight price increases supported by improved demand, while Central China experienced minor declines due to insufficient demand follow-through. Improving demand in the third quarter and the support of peak seasonal demand towards year-end provide a basis for expectations of a hog price rebound. However, the short-term fundamentals offer no clear bullish catalysts, keeping hog futures prices on a weakening path. Market attention should be focused on the impact of spot prices and market sentiment on the futures market.

In the egg sector, after a period of sustained recovery, egg futures retreated yesterday amid weakening prices in surrounding agricultural products. The main 2611 contract continued its downward trend during the session, closing down 2.21% at 3,769 yuan per 500 kilograms. On the spot side, Zhuochuang data showed the national average egg price at 5.33 yuan per jin yesterday, up 0.11 yuan from the previous day. In production areas, Ningjin's powdery-shelled eggs were at 5.3 yuan per jin, up 0.1 yuan, while Heishan's brown-shelled eggs were at 5 yuan per jin, up 0.1 yuan. In consumption areas, Puxi's brown-shelled eggs were at 5.31 yuan per jin, up 0.07 yuan, and Guangzhou's brown-shelled eggs were at 5.5 yuan per jin, up 0.1 yuan. Terminal demand is normal, with traders mostly following the trend in buying and selling. Egg prices in most consumption area markets rose, with a few holding steady. We are currently in the peak demand season, with spot prices continuing to strengthen. However, futures have pulled back under the influence of weakening prices in surrounding agricultural products. Additionally, as the Mid-Autumn Festival approaches, futures market sentiment has turned cautious. Attention should be paid to the risk of spot price corrections as stocking approaches its end.

In the corn sector, Tuesday saw corn and starch futures prices decline in tandem, with starch leading the drop to new lows and corn following suit, narrowing the price spread. In the spot market, as corn futures accelerated downward, spot quotes weakened and trading volumes thinned. Over the weekend, corn purchase prices at northern ports continued to soften, with increasing deliveries of northeastern corn. Additionally, North China corn prices holding an advantage over northeastern prices added to the market's bearish pressure. As new crop supplies increase, there is potential for seasonal price declines; attention should be paid to changes in production area deep processing and downstream demand. Corn prices in North China continued to weaken, with an increasing number of areas bringing new corn to market, maintaining seasonal supply pressure. Downstream enterprises are purchasing on an as-needed basis and controlling their acquisition pace. Prices are expected to remain weak until the new crop is fully listed; focus should be on new crop quality and changes in traders' purchasing intentions. In the consumption areas, corn prices fluctuated within a narrow range, showing an overall stable but slightly weak trend. Downstream buyers are buying on rigid demand, cautious about bulk restocking, and traders are selling at a measured pace. Substitutes continue to divert demand, and the market is heavily watchful, with continued focus on the concentrated arrival of the new crop. Technically, open interest in the corn weighted contract is increasing, with near-month contracts seeing declining open interest and deferred contracts seeing gains. The November contract fell to the 2,200 yuan per tonne integer level; short-term attention is on support at the previous low of 2,200-2,220 yuan, while being wary of technical rebounds following the sharp price decline.

Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

Most Discussed

  1. 1
     
     
     
     
  2. 2
     
     
     
     
  3. 3
     
     
     
     
  4. 4
     
     
     
     
  5. 5
     
     
     
     
  6. 6
     
     
     
     
  7. 7
     
     
     
     
  8. 8
     
     
     
     
  9. 9
     
     
     
     
  10. 10