CITIC Securities has released a research report noting that on September 10, 2026, a State Council Information Office press conference announced the official rollout of the "15th Five-Year Plan for Building a Financial Powerhouse," with four government departments jointly interpreting the plan. Financial regulation is advancing along three parallel tracks: clearing existing risks, replenishing capital, and combating irrational competition. The insurance industry now enjoys an upgraded strategic position, more detailed mandates, and a more comprehensive policy framework, forming an integrated approach centered on stabilizing functions, strengthening governance, expanding services, and attracting long-term capital.
While short-term premium growth faces pressure, operational efficiency is expected to keep improving. Leading institutions are likely to further solidify their competitive advantages, as the industry's growth logic shifts from scale-driven expansion to capital return-driven performance, potentially highlighting dividend attributes beyond the market's beta characteristics. The report outlines two key investment themes: first, property and casualty insurers with strong sustained capital returns and dividend capacity, along with life insurers with clear payout rules and potential for higher dividends; second, large insurance companies with outstanding comprehensive strength and service advantages.
Institutional safeguards for plan implementation have been further strengthened. According to the report, the policy linkage runs from the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee adopting the proposal, through the National People's Congress approving the outline and the National Development and Reform Law, to the formulation of the sector-specific plan. This financial plan serves as a detailed deployment of the national master plan within the financial sector, to be implemented through supporting departmental policies and regulatory measures.
Key highlights include refined targets and an improved regulatory framework, establishing a three-tier system of outline, plan, and action programs, with two-step goals set for 2030 and 2035. Risk prevention and strengthened supervision are positioned as critical foundations for high-quality development. Monetary policy further emphasizes de-emphasizing quantitative intermediate targets and focusing on interest rate regulation. Capital market disclosures reveal IPO reviews take approximately six months, with medium and long-term funds recording net purchases of A-shares exceeding 600 billion yuan. Insurance has achieved upgraded positioning, detailed tasks, and a systematic policy framework, with the average comprehensive solvency ratio of insurers standing at 181.1% by end-2025, indicating ample capital levels.
The mandates cover unified fee structures, technology insurance, agricultural insurance, pension and health products, disaster risk mitigation, and inclusive insurance. Since January 2024, 27 policy documents and supporting arrangements have been issued, spanning four institutional arrangements and eight business lines, with strengthened oversight across pre-event, in-process, and post-event supervision. Short-term premium growth remains under pressure, but operational efficiency is set to improve, further highlighting the competitive advantages of leading institutions.
On the liability side, the mechanism linking预定利率 to market rates continues to operate, with the research value recently stabilizing and recovering to 1.94% as of July 2026, while dynamic pricing mechanisms mitigate new business spread risks. Fee-side reforms now cover both distribution channels and product types, and the revised Insurance Law and strengthened asset-liability management regulations impose stricter quantitative constraints. Although short-term premium growth faces headwinds, five listed insurers recorded year-on-year growth of approximately 5% to 34% in new business value during the first half of 2026, with most achieving double-digit growth. Leading institutions are poised to consolidate their advantages further, as the industry trends toward constrained scale growth, improved operational efficiency, and rising concentration.
Key risks include declining long-term interest rates, slower-than-expected product and channel transformation, tighter capital constraints, suboptimal policy implementation, and investment return volatility.