Bitcoin has demonstrated a robust recovery following a brief pullback, surging from a low of $74,800 to trade above $81,000. On the Bitstamp daily BTC/USD chart, the price touched a high near $81,100 at 15:30 UTC on September 18 before easing back to around $80,900. Although the session's gain approached 6% at that point, the daily candle had yet to close, with the market still digesting the volatility from this rapid ascent.
As the price has climbed back above the cost basis of active investors, a significant portion of Bitcoin has reverted to an illiquid state. The central question now is whether demand can sustain these elevated levels, rather than relying purely on speculative momentum. From a technical standpoint, the current Fibonacci retracement range is anchored on the August low near $62,600 and the September high around $82,300. The 38.2% retracement sits at approximately $74,800, while the 23.6% level is positioned near $77,700.
Bitcoin tested the crucial $74,800 support on September 15 but regained upward momentum before the close and has since maintained a position above that zone. The strong rally on September 18 drove BTC above the $77,700 threshold, pushing toward $81,000. This move validates the analysis published on September 14, which highlighted the $76,500 to $77,000 region as a significant support area. Notably, that earlier report was calculated using the June low of approximately $57,700 as its baseline, whereas the current chart is based on the uptrend starting in August. This difference in reference points explains why the prior analysis placed the first retracement level near $76,500, while the current setup adjusts it to roughly $77,700.
The daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) has recovered to approximately 63, indicating solid bullish momentum, though it has yet to reach the 70 threshold typically associated with overbought conditions. According to the latest data from Glassnode, Bitcoin's "realized market mean" stands at approximately $76,700. This metric estimates the average acquisition cost of economically active Bitcoin supply by down-weighting older, dormant coins. The figure aligns closely with the $77,700 Fibonacci level, and while the two calculations differ methodologically, they collectively point to a broader price zone between $76,700 and $77,700 where recent price action overlaps with the cost basis of active supply.
If the daily close can hold above $77,700, it would confirm that the price has reclaimed this position, though that does not necessarily mean the level will immediately act as solid support. Subsequent trading sessions will be needed to verify buying intent. On-chain data further reveals structural shifts in holder behavior. An analysis published by CryptoQuant Quicktake indicates that since February, Bitcoin supply held by short-term holders has declined from approximately 6 million coins to 3 million, while supply held by long-term holders has risen from roughly 13 million to 16 million over the same period. It should be clarified that these figures reflect the duration since Bitcoin was last transacted and do not directly identify specific individual investors, nor do they imply that long-term holders actually purchased 3 million additional coins. Some Bitcoin simply crossed the platform's age threshold by remaining unspent for an extended period, thereby changing their classification.
A more critical signal is the recent decline in Bitcoin's circulation velocity, indicating that during the market recovery, an increasing number of coins are remaining dormant. The amount of Bitcoin available to holders who trade frequently may be diminishing. The price trading above the "realized market mean" suggests that current demand is sufficient to push BTC above the estimated cost basis of active coins, but this alone does not yet constitute evidence of a supply squeeze. A genuine supply shock would require sustained demand to absorb an increasingly limited pool of available Bitcoin. Determining whether tradable supply is truly contracting requires a broader assessment of exchange balances, long-term holder spending patterns, and investment fund flows.
If the price manages to hold above $77,700 in the sessions ahead, it would mark the first confirmation that the previous breakout has shifted the short-term trading range. Should it fail, BTC would likely retreat to the broader cost-basis zone around $76,700, exposing the recent gains to deeper downside risk. Looking ahead, Bitcoin is currently trading near Glassnode's estimated corporate treasury cost basis of approximately $80,400. This figure reflects the breakeven point for corporate entities on average, but it does not imply that those entities are poised to sell their holdings. The more critical resistance remains the September high of roughly $82,300. A daily close above that level would break through the upper boundary of the current range, and at that point, Glassnode's estimated US spot ETF cost basis of around $85,600 would become the next on-chain reference point above the price.
Conversely, if the daily close falls below the 38.2% retracement level, it would indicate that buyers failed to defend the support zone that drove the price recovery. The next downside reference would appear near $72,500, where the 50% retracement roughly coincides with the rising 50-day moving average. Signals from the next routine profit-taking event will carry more weight than the candle pattern observed on September 18. The supply of Bitcoin that transacts less frequently should provide sufficient buffer to absorb selling pressure without immediately breaking below the average cost basis of active participants. If Bitcoin can sustain itself above this cost basis, supply pressure from older inventory coins may already be beginning to influence price dynamics. Should the price reverse sharply instead, it would suggest that holders remain patient, but patience alone cannot replace the fresh buying power needed to break out of the current range.