Intel closed at USD 108.80, rising 7.67%.

Despite the sharp rally, a massive $22.60 million dual long put position on the 2028 $125 strikes stood out as the dominant trade, signaling aggressive bearish conviction from an institutional player. The overall large-trade flow leaned heavily bearish, with heavy premium paid for downside puts and broader block activity featuring call selling and bearish spreads, even as one smaller synthetic long appeared among the flow.

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Options Indicators

INTC’s implied volatility is 67.50%, and with an IV percentile of 42.63%, current volatility is sitting in a neutral historical range rather than at an extreme. That suggests options are not especially cheap or especially expensive relative to their own recent history, even though the absolute IV level is still fairly elevated. With an IV/HV ratio of 1.22, implied volatility is running above realized volatility, indicating the market is pricing in somewhat richer forward volatility expectations than what the stock has recently delivered.

The Call/Put volume ratio is 1.61.

Large Trades

A directional put-buying combination worth $22.60 million was the largest highlighted trade, consisting of two long 125.0 puts expiring on 2028-01-21, with 3,000 contracts and 2,900 contracts respectively. Both legs were in the money versus the $108.80 reference stock price, and because this was a same-direction dual-buy put structure, it reads as an aggressive bearish volatility bet rather than a hedge financed by premium sales. The net debit of $22.60 million signals a trader willing to pay substantial premium upfront for downside exposure over the long term, implying expectations for a meaningful decline in INTC and potentially a large move lower rather than a modest pullback.

A synthetic long position worth $1.35 million was also featured, built through buying the 120.0 call and selling the 80.0 put, both expiring on 2026-10-16 and both out of the money. Under the trade-classification rules, this is a synthetic call option, and its size is measured as the sum of the two legs’ transaction amounts, totaling $1.35 million. Strategically, this structure expresses a bullish stance with lower upfront cash outlay than a straight call purchase, while taking on downside assignment risk through the short put; in effect, the trader is positioning for upside in INTC over the medium-to-long horizon. Overall, however, the large-trade flow remains clearly bearish: the standout activity was dominated by heavy premium paid for downside put exposure, while the broader block flow also leaned toward call selling and bearish spread activity. Even with selective bullish positioning present, the institutional tone points to caution and a negative directional bias on INTC.

Strategy Reference

For a lower assignment probability on the short side, a trader could consider selling a shorter-dated put near the 70.00 strike, which sits well below the recent consolidation zone and aligns with a neutral-to-bullish view on support, or alternatively use a bear put spread to express downside without posting the full uncovered put margin.