Traders have shown a slight uptick in bullish sentiment toward the yen for the coming week, following reports that the Bank of Japan conducted a rate check on the currency. However, the current expectations for yen appreciation remain significantly more subdued compared to the levels seen in late July, when Tokyo intervened in the foreign exchange market, and in early September, when US Treasury Secretary Bessent publicly pressured the BOJ to raise interest rates.
The one-week dollar/yen risk reversal indicator moved further into negative territory for the second time in three days, with the gauge reading -2.17% on Friday, compared to -2.02% on Thursday and -1.98% a week earlier. This deepening negative figure suggests a growing preference for put options over call options.
Over the past several months, traders have generally remained bullish on the yen, with put options betting on a dollar/yen decline in the coming week priced higher than call options anticipating an advance in the currency pair. Nevertheless, the market's expectations for yen strength over the next week are far more tempered than the extreme levels witnessed in early September and during the late July to early August period.