Oracle's $18B AI Loan Sits at a Discount, Raising Questions About AI Financing

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Oracle Corp's (NYSE: ORCL) roughly $18 billion syndicated loan for its Project Jupiter data center in New Mexico has hit a wall in distribution, with banks now quoting the debt at 89 to 91 cents on the dollar. That pricing implies a market value of approximately $16 billion to $16.4 billion for the loan, signaling growing investor hesitation.

Oracle shares slipped 2% in overnight trading, a move that stands out against the broader strength in the AI sector. The loan, underwritten by a consortium of banks late last year, was meant to kickstart construction on Project Jupiter, a key component of the "Stargate" initiative. That massive $500 billion AI infrastructure program, led by OpenAI, SoftBank, and Oracle, aims to build out AI computing capacity on a national scale across the United States.

Concerns are mounting over Oracle's rising debt load and weakening credit profile. In July, Standard & Poor's downgraded Oracle's corporate credit rating, leaving it just one notch above junk status. Banks' efforts to sell the loan to a wider pool of investors have stalled, and they are now forced to hold more Oracle-related debt on their own balance sheets than originally planned, according to reports from the Financial Times.

Oracle isn't the only AI heavyweight feeling the financial squeeze. OpenAI disclosed in an internal presentation from July that it expects cumulative negative free cash flow of $278 billion between 2026 and 2030. Even with projected revenue climbing from $36 billion in 2026 to $350 billion by 2030, the scale of spending required for computing power is set to overshadow income growth dramatically.

Meanwhile, Anthropic has decided to push its initial public offering to November, according to a Wall Street Journal report from the 18th, later than the record-breaking October debut many had anticipated. Insiders point to one key factor behind the delay: prominent leaders at several of the largest AI companies have been urging a slowdown in the pace of technological development.

The trillion-dollar financing demands are now testing the limits of the credit market, even as AI investment continues to expand. Capital expenditure guidance from America's five biggest cloud computing firms for 2026 totals more than $750 billion, with projections surging past $1.1 trillion in 2027. Cumulative AI capital spending could reach $5.5 trillion by 2030. JPMorgan forecasts that the investment-grade corporate credit market will provide more than $2.1 trillion in financing for data centers over the next five years, with high-yield bonds and leveraged loans contributing an additional $350 billion.

The discount and stalled distribution of Oracle's $18 billion loan represent an early test in what is shaping up to be a historic wave of financing. It remains a telling signal of the friction building between the AI sector's voracious appetite for capital and the market's capacity to absorb it.

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