Middle East Crude Surges to Three-Month Peak as Saudi Pipeline Attack Deepens Supply Fears

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Yesterday

Crude oil prices loaded in the Persian Gulf have jumped to their highest level since March, driven by escalating concerns that supply shortages could return to the severe conditions last seen at the onset of the Middle East conflict.

Following last week's attack that shut down a critical Saudi pipeline, traders have been scrambling for alternative cargoes. Oman crude futures soared to $132.09 per barrel, with its premium over the international Brent benchmark widening to nearly $24—also a level not seen since March. The demand for Oman crude is particularly strong given its location outside the Strait of Hormuz.

Meanwhile, Abu Dhabi's Murban crude, another key benchmark grade that is transported via pipeline to bypass the strait, is trading near $124 per barrel, its highest price since the early days of the US-Iran confrontation. Although some oil shipments are still passing through the Strait of Hormuz, the risk of attacks on vessels is steadily climbing.

The recent strikes on Red Sea ships and Saudi oil infrastructure have already pulled millions of barrels of crude out of the market. Buyers competing for replacement supply have not only pushed oil prices higher but have also reignited inflation concerns. These worries have driven a sharp rise in bond yields and strengthened market bets on further interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve.

Following a series of drone strikes, Saudi Arabia was compelled to shut down its East-West pipeline last week. This pipeline serves as the kingdom's primary route for delivering oil to global markets should the Strait of Hormuz be closed. Millions of barrels flowed through it daily, and the market was desperately seeking that supply.

Florence Schmit, senior energy strategist at Rabobank, noted: "The halt of the East-West pipeline—even if temporary—redirects the pressure back to transits through the Strait of Hormuz. Combined with the latest wave of attacks on vessels attempting to navigate the strait, this introduces a fresh layer of uncertainty."

Benchmark prices in the Middle East are reflecting this market strain, even as signs emerge that Saudi Arabia is attempting to boost supply through the Strait of Hormuz. It remains unclear to what extent these efforts can offset the losses caused by the pipeline outage.

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