In a macroeconomic analysis released on Thursday, JPMorgan has suggested that Bitcoin could outperform gold if hedging activity subsides. This view aligns with the long-standing projection from Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Eric Balchunas, who anticipates that as institutional adoption deepens, Bitcoin ETF assets could eventually reach three times the scale of their gold counterparts. The structural comparison of fund flows and market sentiment reveals noteworthy divergences between the two asset classes.
Led by strategist Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, the JPMorgan team highlighted that physical gold ETFs have fully recovered from outflows experienced in 2026, whereas Bitcoin ETFs have only recaptured approximately half of their losses. The momentum behind the "debasement trade" that fueled inflows into both asset classes following the July Federal Reserve meeting has weakened over the past week, driven by a rise in inflation-adjusted bond yields and the failure of the Clear Act to advance in the US Senate. Data compiled by Woofun AI indicates that the short interest in BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust has climbed to its highest level this year, while short positions in the SPDR Gold Shares ETF remain below historical averages. Furthermore, the put-to-call ratio for IBIT exceeds that of GLD, reinforcing the notion of stronger hedging demand and a more cautious stance toward Bitcoin. Analysts emphasize that a decline in hedging demand could provide additional support for the cryptocurrency.
On a long-term basis, generational wealth transfer and volatility convergence stand out as pivotal factors. In a video posted on X, Eric Balchunas argued that as wealth transitions to younger generations and Bitcoin’s volatility diminishes, institutional acceptance will rise, ultimately enabling Bitcoin ETFs to reach triple the size of their gold equivalents. He noted that younger investors view Bitcoin as a store of value, yet current high volatility and its tight correlation with the Nasdaq 100 Index continue to steer large institutions toward gold. As volatility and equity-linked correlations subside, a turning point will emerge, positioning Bitcoin as a reliable store of value and haven asset. "Bitcoin is like gold in its teenage years," Balchunas remarked, adding, "Gold has a 5,000-year history, while Bitcoin is only 17 years old."
JPMorgan’s data further indicates that demand for Bitcoin ETFs has declined more sharply than for gold ETFs over the past week, suggesting greater upside potential when sentiment improves. Futures positioning for both assets remains elevated, signaling that institutional investors have not exited their positions. Shutterstock provided imagery for this analysis. Regarding price forecasts, supply scarcity and adoption rates serve as intrinsic drivers. Mark Yusko contends that the supply constraints arising from the halving mechanism, combined with rising adoption, support price appreciation, and he views Bitcoin’s current level near $75,000 as undervalued. October 5 is identified as a key date, when market dynamics may validate these projections.