On September 17, market sentiment aligned with a stronger U.S. dollar index, which decisively broke above the key resistance at 99.76 from the previous four-hour triple-top pattern and climbed further to hold above the 100.00 level. The firmer greenback directly weighed on dollar-denominated gold, while safe-haven and inflation-hedging demand simultaneously receded. With the Federal Reserve's rate hike expectations tightening, upside room for gold prices remained constrained.

From a technical standpoint, the lower band of the daily Bollinger Bands shifted downward from 4222 to 4186, with the channel continuing to open lower. This signals that the downward space is still expanding, support levels are progressively lowering, and the overall trend structure remains bearish. Combining external and internal factors that are both negative for gold, today's strategy leans toward selling on rebounds. Key resistance levels to watch are 4324, 4345, and the previous high pressure at 4366; rebounds into these zones offer opportunities for staged short positions. On the downside, the support range formed by the early morning pullback low at 4258 and the week's opening low at 4253 is critical. A break below this could target the early morning low at 4235; if that level is decisively breached, further downside extension is likely, with subsequent support at 4200 and the daily Bollinger lower band at 4186.

Gold reference strategy: Current live price is around 4312. First, on a rebound, initial contact with the 4332–4335 zone is a short entry with a stop loss at 4340, targeting 4317, 4300, 4280, and 4250. Second, if this short trade is stopped out, wait for a long entry in the 4220–4217 zone with a stop at 4210, aiming for 4232 and 4342. Third, place pending long orders at 4200 and 4185 with a stop at 4175, targeting 4250 and 4300 or higher; short-term longs will be guided intraday.

Crude oil prices suffered another sharp decline, with the week's initial low at 100.5 formally breached, signaling a clear breakdown. News flow continues to pressure prices, as the overnight API inventory data came in bearish, and market expectations for evening EIA inventory data also point to a negative reading. The combination of these dual bearish factors keeps oil under significant pressure, and the larger scenario for Thursday and Friday remains a continuation of the downtrend.

Technical indicators reinforce a bearish outlook, as the weekly candlestick for crude oil has transitioned into a long upper-shadow bearish candle controlling the market. Momentum from bullish buyers appears exhausted, and a reversal this week is unlikely, limiting rebound potential. On the downside, the daily MA10 at 98.9 and the four-hour MA60 at 98 form two key support nodes. If the 98 level is decisively broken, the decline could accelerate, with a potential test of the weekly Bollinger middle band at 93.2. On the upside, resistance is seen at the early morning rebound high at 102.8; a break above this would signal an interruption of the downtrend, potentially extending the bounce. Further resistance is noted at 104.5 and 106.1.

Overall, fundamentals and technicals align to the downside, so the preferred approach is to sell on rebounds. Short positions can be initiated near the 102.8 resistance, while attention remains on the 98 support level; a break below would confirm a continuation of the decline. Strict risk management is essential given the potential for volatile price swings. Crude oil reference strategy: Current live price is around 100.9. First, a rebound into the 102.4–102.8 zone is a short entry with a stop at 103.5, targeting 100.5, 99, and 98, with an extension to 95 on a break. Second, a dip into the 99.2–98.9 zone is a long entry with a stop at 98.5, targeting 100, 101.5, and 102.4, with position reduction on a breakout.

This article is for reference purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice. Investors should operate at their own risk based on their own judgment.