Morgan Stanley has refreshed its risk-reward assessment for CK Asset Holdings Ltd (01113), integrating the company's first-half results into its framework. The brokerage has trimmed its underlying profit forecasts for fiscal years 2026 through 2028 by 2%, 5%, and 3%, respectively, reflecting revised assumptions on retail and office lease renewals, occupancy rates, and interest costs, alongside an updated timeline for development property revenue recognition and project completions.

The bank maintains its target price of HK$49 and reiterates a "Market Perform" rating on the stock. Dividend per share forecasts for the 2026-2028 period remain unchanged, with a projected stable payout ratio of 45% to 50%.

Morgan Stanley notes that potential upside could stem from robust sales at Borrett Road No. 21 and the Lohas Park "Floral Sea" project in the second half of the year, although proceeds from development property sales are viewed as non-recurring. Despite the company's asset disposal activities and net cash position, the bank does not anticipate any additional capital returns in the near term.