All three major A-share indices closed in negative territory today, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling 0.54% to 3,864.28 points, the Shenzhen Component Index down 0.72%, and the ChiNext Index declining 1.15%. Combined turnover reached approximately 1.63 trillion yuan, a modest contraction from the previous session, keeping volume near the lower end of the year's range. The market followed a pattern of tentative early gains, followed by gradual weakening and continued pressure in the afternoon, as indices lacked incremental capital support on rallies and showed weak buying interest during pullbacks, resulting in a lower center of gravity amid shrinking volume.

Structural divergence was evident: sectors such as semiconductors and advanced packaging, electronic chemicals, and wind power equipment remained relatively active, representing the few areas with meaningful profit-making opportunities. Meanwhile, agricultural planting, departure tax refunds, film and television exhibition, and parts of the consumer retail space underperformed, with a clear retreat in previously hot themes. Looking at the breadth of advancing versus declining stocks and sector distribution, today's market offered limited profit-making opportunities overall, with capital concentrated in a narrow set of sectors backed by industrial catalysts and earnings visibility rather than broadening across the market. Notably, the STAR 50 Index bucked the trend with gains, aligning with the strength in semiconductors and advanced packaging, reflecting a structural preference for hard-tech themes that may foreshadow the direction of sector momentum ahead. (Source: Wind)

Overnight overseas market turbulence was a key external factor dampening risk appetite: global tech and computing power chains came under pressure from the "AI slowdown" narrative, the 10-year US Treasury yield climbed above 5%, and with the Federal Reserve meeting approaching this week, global risk asset pricing has turned cautious. Domestically, August economic data released today showed weak readings across industrial output, retail sales, and investment, with the "strong supply, weak demand" pattern persisting, raising expectations for further policy support. With these domestic and external factors intertwined, the market is currently more focused on awaiting the resolution of key variables rather than making directional bets in a hurry.

In the near term, the index remains in a phase of bottoming with shrinking volume, and the focus should be on whether turnover can recover, fundamental and Q3 earnings validation, policy implementation pace, and external variables such as the Fed decision. In a weak and volatile environment, the absence of trend opportunities at the aggregate level suggests structural opportunities are likely to remain the market's primary feature. For the market to escape its current low-volume bottoming range, it needs both a meaningful expansion in turnover to confirm the return of incremental capital, and at least one catalyst from fundamental data, policy implementation, or the release of external risks. During this period of consolidation, positioning should focus on sectors with verifiable order and pricing power logic and strong earnings certainty, while remaining vigilant about volatility risks in high-positioned themes.

Semiconductor Equipment: Today saw a notable rebound, with front-end equipment, cleaning and thin-film deposition, metrology, and components all strengthening, as the Semiconductor Equipment ETF (159516) gained more than 3%. While the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell sharply overnight on the "AI slowdown" narrative, A-share semiconductor equipment was independently priced on domestic capacity expansion and order fulfillment, creating a "weak externally, strong internally" divergence. This reflects that the sector's core pricing logic is shifting from overseas valuation and sentiment toward the certainty of domestic wafer fab capital expenditure and import substitution. Four main factors underpin today's rebound: First, memory and advanced logic expansion, combined with upward revisions in global wafer fab equipment spending forecasts, with CXMT already listed and YMTC in the inquiry stage, reinforces the sustainability of expansion expectations, providing medium-to-long-term support for domestic equipment and component demand. As fab construction progresses, cleanroom engineering orders land first, gradually transmitting to process equipment procurement and installation, giving equipment orders a clear timeline and earnings delivery path.

Second, orders and component supply tightness are driving price increases, with testing equipment securing large memory sector orders as import substitution moves from validation to batch procurement, and component pricing discussions underway, providing earnings elasticity through both volume and price. Third, the sector had experienced sufficient prior correction while order books remain full, prompting capital to return at attractive valuations; after the deep pullback, risk-reward improved meaningfully, making oversold recovery rational from a trading perspective. Fourth, pricing logic is increasingly anchored to domestic fab capex and import substitution, reducing dependence on overseas semiconductor cycle dynamics, which provides a fundamental explanation for the "weak external, strong internal" divergence. Structurally, this rally is led by the "pick-and-shovel" equipment and component segments, with upstream capex certainty transmitting sequentially to midstream equipment and downstream process segments, resonating across front-end, testing, and metrology sub-sectors, though profit-making opportunities remain concentrated within the chain.

However, it's important to note that this rebound has only lasted a day or two, and a full correction does not mean an uptrend is confirmed; sustainability depends on the actual pace of order conversion and price increase realization. Near-term, amid index consolidation and weak risk appetite, the sector is more likely to see structural, pulse-like recoveries rather than broad trend moves. Medium-term, attention should focus on global fab expansion pace, component supply bottlenecks, and overseas export controls. Overall, the import substitution and expansion logic remains intact, but from a trading perspective, emphasis should be on segments with verifiable order and price increase logic. Interested investors may watch the Semiconductor Equipment ETF (159516).

Chip Sector: Upstream equipment and downstream chips advanced in tandem, with memory, design, and packaging/testing leading. Today the Chip ETF (512760) gained over 1.8%. The chip sector also strengthened today, experiencing a "pick-and-shovel plus cycle" double catalyst, also benefiting from the "weak external, strong internal" recovery. Structurally, this rally is not a single-theme pulse but the result of multiple factors converging: the memory price increase cycle, edge innovation, policy catalysts, and risk appetite broadening. Activity spans upstream design, midstream manufacturing, and downstream packaging/testing, giving the move better breadth and sustainability. Multiple threads are resonating: On the memory front, manufacturers and module makers are increasingly aligned on expectations for supply tightness, rising prices, and AI server demand pull, with domestic memory makers announcing LPDDR6 mass production, further anchoring domestic memory iteration, with price increase logic forming the sector's foundation. As memory prices rise, earnings elasticity at related companies should gradually emerge, making this one of the most certain themes in the chip sector.

The design and edge segments are being driven by foldable flagship launches, self-developed SoCs, and the edge AI narrative, with the rally expanding from pure training GPUs to "chips beyond training," with both design and packaging/testing strengthening as AI application scenarios broaden. On the policy front, "15th Five-Year Plan" language and references to computing power networks and computing-electricity coordination are providing sentiment spillover to domestic computing chips and servers, giving the independent controllability theme valuation support and further extending import substitution logic. Additionally, risk appetite from the electronics price increase chain is spreading positively, with memory price hikes driving capital from passive components and power semiconductors toward semiconductors, with design, IDM, and equipment tending to rise together and cross-sector linkage notably strengthening. The price increase trade is thus transmitting from niche products to the broader electronics supply chain. However, attention should remain on price increase expectation realization and overseas capex disruptions. On one hand, whether memory price increases persist and whether manufacturers adjust supply strategies still needs fundamental data validation; if the price increase logic fails to materialize, intra-sector divergence will widen significantly. On the other hand, changes in overseas AI capex and Philadelphia Semiconductor Index conditions could disturb the sector through sentiment and valuation channels, and external variable uncertainty cannot be ignored.

Near-term, in a weak and volatile index environment, structural and cyclical opportunities coexist in the chip sector, more likely manifesting as a "strong mainline plus weak rotation" pattern, with positioning favoring segments with verifiable order and price increase logic. Interested investors may watch the Chip ETF (512760).

Bond Market: The bond market recovered today, with both cash bonds and futures strengthening. Following the release of fundamental data at 10 AM, yields generally retreated to reclaim yesterday's losses, initiating the recovery. The active 10-year government bond yield oscillated downward in the 1.6790%-1.6830% range, while the 30-year yield also trended lower, breaking below the 2.17% level, touching an intraday low of 2.1650%, opening room for further declines. Treasury futures strengthened in tandem, with the 30-year main contract TL returning above 116, with the ultra-long end recovering quickly after yesterday's MPA rumor disruption and the curve showing bull-flattening characteristics. At 10 AM, the National Bureau of Statistics released August economic data providing fundamental support for the bond recovery: value-added industrial output grew 5.2% year-on-year, services production index rose 4.1%, and total goods trade grew 19.8%; from January to August, total retail sales of consumer goods and services grew 2.5%, with the urban surveyed unemployment rate averaging 5.2%. The economy continues its "generally stable, improving with innovation" trajectory. Structurally, external demand and industrial production show relative resilience while domestic demand and consumption remain weak, with a muted reaction to the data release.

In terms of institutional behavior, buying was relatively strong today: banks were the primary sellers throughout the day, while funds, brokers, and insurers formed the buying side. Banks concentrated on selling 10-year government and CDB bonds, 30-year bonds, local government bonds, and Tier-2 capital instruments, with long-duration instruments largely absorbed by non-bank institutions, jointly driving the ultra-long end recovery. On funding and supply, tax season and government bond supply remain near-term disruptions; the central bank conducted net injection of 592 billion yuan today, making sustained tight funding unlikely, though the "support without pumping" stance is evident, with overnight and 7-day funding rates likely to stay somewhat expensive around policy rates, constraining leverage and trading band opportunities. Yesterday's MPA assessment rumors pressured the ultra-long end, but with the relevant indicators still under consultation, benchmark settings relatively moderate, and major banks' durations mostly already compliant, the actual impact was limited and largely digested today. The market currently leans toward yields maintaining a low-volatility range, with single-day recovery unlikely to become a trend. Before policy implementation and supply shock absorption, chasing upside is also limited; should yields rise on funding or sentiment disruptions, staged accumulation remains appropriate. Near-term, whether the 30-year yield can hold below 2.17% and open further downside needs observation of September-October supply pressure, fundamentals, and funding conditions. Medium-term, attention remains on government bond supply pace, fundamental recovery quality, equity market performance, and the Fed decision, with supply peaks potentially pushing yields higher temporarily. If fundamentals remain weak, that provides support for bonds; with bullish and bearish factors intertwined, range-bound trading is more likely. With stable funding and oscillating yields, staged allocation balancing carry and duration remains a prudent strategy. Interested investors may watch the 10-Year Treasury ETF (511260) and Treasury ETF (511010). (Source: DM)

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