On September 16, how gold responds to an interest rate decision often hinges on how much of that decision the market has already priced in beforehand. In an interview published by Kitco on September 15, analyst Jesse Colombo suggested that even a rate hike that matches expectations could be accompanied by a rebound in gold prices.

Regarding this scenario, CBCX noted that the key lies in the difference between the outcome and the original pricing, rather than a mechanical response to the direction of rates. If positions have already been fully adjusted around a certain outcome, the release of the news may lead to a easing of pressure. On this point, CBCX believes that even if the decision itself contains no surprise, the interpretation of the future rate path could still trigger a repricing.

The judgments in the interview are based on conditional market analysis and should not be taken as upcoming results, nor as a basis for assuming gold prices will inevitably rise. Similarly, there is a difference between briefly touching a certain price level and closing stably above it, as these imply different levels of market acceptance.

It is also necessary to identify what is driving the rebound. Short covering can bring about rapid price changes, while new long-term allocations may take more time to emerge, and the two differ in sustainability. Trading volume, open interest, and fund flows can provide supplementary information, but their release timings vary. Directly stitching together intraday volatility with later-updated data could lead to an overestimation of the consistency of evidence at the same point in time.

For the market after the meeting, observing continuity is more helpful than simply looking at the first reaction. In CBCX's view, whether yields and the US dollar cooperate, and whether prices can stabilize in a new range, will determine whether the scenario assessment still holds. Analysis needs to adjust with new information, preserving both conditions and conclusions, to reduce the error of extrapolating a single event reaction into a long-term trend.

Risk warning: This article is for information sharing only and does not constitute investment advice. Foreign exchange and precious metals are high-risk products with significant volatility that may lead to loss of principal. Please invest rationally and bear your own risks.