The US dollar index extended its winning streak to a sixth consecutive session during Asian trading on Thursday, hovering near 100.20. The primary driver behind the greenback's recent rally is the Federal Reserve's decision to resume interest rate hikes, coupled with Chair Kevin Warsh's hawkish remarks, which have reinforced market expectations for sustained policy tightening. Meanwhile, traders are awaiting US initial jobless claims data to better assess labor market conditions and gauge the Fed's subsequent policy flexibility.

On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve raised its federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 3.75%-4.00%, aligning with market forecasts and marking the first rate increase in three years. Following the policy rate adjustment, market pricing for the future interest rate trajectory shifted rapidly. According to the CME FedWatch tool, market participants now assign approximately a 49.8% probability to another rate hike at the October meeting, indicating that investors are already beginning to price in further policy moves more fully.

In his post-meeting press conference, Chair Kevin Warsh emphasized that US inflation remains "too high" and has persisted for too long, characterizing the rate hike as a carefully considered policy decision. He further stated that if price pressures continue to persist, raising borrowing costs further in the coming months remains a policy option. Compared to earlier market expectations for a potential shift toward monetary easing, this policy stance has notably enhanced the dollar's interest rate advantage.

From a policy perspective, the Fed is not merely adjusting rates in response to short-term fluctuations in economic data, but is instead placing greater focus on whether inflation is on a sustainable downward path. Warsh underscored the resilience of the US economic fundamentals, suggesting that policymakers have the leeway to devote more attention to price stability. As long as economic growth does not show any significant slowdown, the scope for the Fed to maintain elevated rates or even continue tightening remains intact, which is a key reason why the dollar has found solid support recently.

The dollar's strength has been clearly reflected in its performance against major currencies. Over the course of this week, the dollar has gained approximately 1.22% against the euro, 1.17% against the British pound, 1.61% against the Japanese yen, 0.88% against the Canadian dollar, 0.86% against the Australian dollar, and 1.64% against the New Zealand dollar. Overall, the greenback has once again emerged as one of the stronger currencies in the major forex markets.

However, the prolonged run-up also suggests that the dollar has accumulated significant short-term gains. With the dollar index having re-established itself above the 100 mark, market attention now shifts to whether upcoming economic data can continue to support the Fed's hawkish stance. If initial jobless claims rise notably, or if subsequent employment and economic indicators show signs of cooling, market expectations for further rate hikes could be recalibrated, potentially exposing the dollar to periodic profit-taking pressure.

Meanwhile, US Treasury yields remain an important transmission variable for the dollar's trajectory. Sustained high policy rates and expectations for additional tightening help push up short-end US yields, and higher yields on dollar-denominated assets enhance the currency's relative appeal. However, if long-end yields rise primarily due to elevated inflation risks, there is also cause to remain vigilant about the pressure this could place on risk assets and global growth expectations.

For the foreign exchange market, the dollar's path ahead will depend on the dynamic interplay between Fed policy expectations and economic data. The initial jobless claims report will serve as a critical near-term catalyst, followed by upcoming US inflation, employment, and consumption data. If the economy remains resilient and inflation continues to run above the policy target, the dollar's rate advantage may be sustained; conversely, if the economy cools noticeably, the risk of a corrective pullback after six consecutive daily gains will gradually intensify.

From a daily chart perspective, the dollar index is currently trading around 100.30, with price positioned above both the 50-day EMA and the 9-day EMA, keeping the short-term rebound structure intact. The 14-day RSI has climbed to 63.58, approaching overbought territory, which indicates that buyers still maintain control, though the scope for further upside momentum expansion after consecutive gains is becoming more limited. To the downside, initial support is seen at the 50-day EMA around 99.69, followed by the 9-day EMA near 99.64, with the two moving averages forming a relatively concentrated support zone. As long as the dollar index continues to hold above the 99.64-99.69 range, the daily structure remains tilted to the upside.

On the 4-hour timeframe, the dollar index has formed a continuous rebound pattern, with price trading consistently above the short-term moving average cluster. The 100.00 level has gradually transformed from prior resistance into a key near-term support threshold. If price can break decisively above the 100.50 area, further tests of 101.00 and 101.50 could follow; however, if it rallies and then falls back below 100.00, caution over short-term profit-taking is warranted, with a corrective target around 99.70. Overall, the dollar remains in a strong short-term phase, but with the RSI entering elevated territory, market participants should be mindful of potential high-level volatility.

In summary, the Fed's renewed rate hike and Kevin Warsh's emphasis on persistent inflation have led the market to reassess expectations for US rates to remain elevated or even tighten further, driving the dollar index to a sixth consecutive daily gain and a firm foothold above the 100 level. In the near term, monetary policy continues to serve as a major pillar of support for the dollar, but the sustained rally has also elevated the risk of a technical pullback. Going forward, initial jobless claims, inflation, and employment data will serve as key inputs for the market to reprice the Fed's policy trajectory, with the 99.64-99.69 zone acting as the crucial support band for determining the dollar index's short-term strength or weakness.