Bitcoin flashed a key technical signal on Sunday, with its weekly closing price breaking above the 50-week moving average for the first time since November 2025, ending a 45-week stretch below that line. This pattern, which closed a long gap, is being read by analyst Alex Thorn as a strong hint that the current bear market's low point may already be set.

Historical data provides solid backing for this view. In past completed bear markets, Bitcoin has climbed back above the 50-week moving average a total of 13 times, and in only two of those cases did it later print a fresh low, both occurring during the 2021-to-2022 decline. Looking at the bigger picture, across five bear markets where the price fell below this average, four managed to reclaim it successfully after bottoming out.

Data compiled by Woofun AI shows that the 200-week moving average, acting as long-term support, has only been breached in 56 of the 642 weekly closes since its introduction. In contrast, the 50-week moving average often serves as a ceiling for bounces, capping gains until the maximum drawdown concludes. The current market's behavior at these support levels closely mirrors the bear market patterns seen in 2015 and 2018.

Reviewing the specific points of this cycle, Bitcoin dropped below the 50-week moving average on November 16, 2025, and then hit a bear market low of $58,525 on June 30, 2026. That represents a cumulative decline of 53.1% from the all-time high of $124,824 reached in October 2025. Since then, the price has rebounded 39%, with Sunday's close settling at $78,786, which is 3.0% above the 50-week moving average and 23.9% above the 200-week moving average, currently sitting at $65,487.

Bitcoin is now trading at $81,341. If it can hold firm and break decisively above both of these key averages, the probability that the bear market low is confirmed increases substantially. However, the market has not fully ruled out another test of the lows, with some viewpoints suggesting the bottom could still appear in October. The next few weeks of price action will ultimately determine whether the June low marks the true market bottom or just a temporary rebound.