Global Commodities Roundup: Market Talk

Dow Jones
8 hours ago

The latest Market Talks covering Commodities. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.

1611 ET - Natural gas futures post back-to-back gains as summer weather extends well into September, while gains are limited as the season advances and temperatures ease. Still, September heat is above-average and points to higher-than-usual cooling demand through the end of the month, Dennis Kissler of BOK Financial says in a note. And with this week's storage report expected to show another below-average injection, buyers remain active, he says. Nymex natural gas settles up 0.8% at $2.919/mmBtu. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)

1558 ET - Crude futures rise to their highest level in four months as supply worries increase with threats to alternative supply routes out of the Middle East such as the outage of Saudi Arabia's pipeline to the Red Sea. "Bias remains clearly on the upside," Nikos Tzabouras of Tradu says in a note. "The loss of this crucial alternative to the Strait of Hormuz can prolong the market shortfall and delay normalization, while dwindling inventories leave limited capacity to absorb further shocks." WTI settles up 4.4% at $105.83 a barrel and Brent gains 2.9% to $108.75 a barrel. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)

1444 ET - U.S. winter wheat planting at 8% is below the five-year average of 12% for the time of year, which raises concerns about a second consecutive year of low winter wheat production, analysts at Rabobank say in a note. On the bearish side, global inventories are rising amid logistics constraints and increasing stocks in Ukraine and Russia "could lead to a substantial carryover into the next marketing year," they add. December wheat is up 0.8% on CBOT. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)

1433 ET - Precious metals futures settle lower in cautious trading ahead of the Fed's interest-rate decision on Wednesday. "Elevated oil prices amid Middle East tensions and supply disruptions continued to fuel inflation fears and bolster bets on a Federal Reserve interest rate hike this week, keeping the yellow metal exposed to downside risk," Naga market analyst Frank Walbaum says in a note. "A hawkish Fed could further pull gold down, while any soft messaging may ease bets on hikes and help the metal recover." Front month gold slips 0.4% to $4.291.60 a troy ounce and silver settles down 0.4% at $63.236 a troy ounce. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)

1243 ET - The U.S. exported a record 2.2 billion gallons of ethanol in 2025 worth $4.7 billion, and exports of the biofuel were up 12% in the first half of this year by volume and 21% by value, the USDA says in a report, noting growing global demand and reduced competition from Brazil. A number of wildcards--both positive and negative for U.S. exports--could have an impact the rest of the year, the USDA adds. Brazil could recover export market share if its production outpaces domestic consumption growth. In the U.S., producers can benefit from a tax break they couldn't previously use, although policy changes to increase consumption such as a nationwide E15 mandate could limit exportable supply and push up prices. Demand could rise further as countries respond to higher energy prices caused by the Middle East conflict. "Ethanol prices have not spiked like oil and gasoline, giving ethanol an advantage and encouraging higher blending as a method to reduce prices at the pump." (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)

1126 ET - The U.S. corn crop was in 57% good/excellent condition this week, up from 56% the week before but down from 67% this time last year, according to the USDA's latest report. The corn harvest was 8% complete compared with 7% a year ago. "The widespread heatwaves seen to finish the growing season have certainly sped up maturity, but scattered heavy rains across the Midwest in the last week ultimately kept somewhat of a lid on progress at the national level," Mike Castle of StoneX says in a note. Soybeans were 58% good/excellent, with 6% harvested. That's double the five-year average of 3%, "again reflecting the rapid maturation due to recent excessive heat," Castle adds. The spring wheat harvest is 93% complete, with winter wheat 8% planted. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)

1027 ET - Precious metals are modestly lower as the market looks to tomorrow's Fed interest-rate decision, which is widely expected to be a rate increase. The risk of higher yields extends beyond the U.S., DHF Capital CEO Bas Kooijman says in a note. "Persistent tensions in the Middle East have kept oil prices high, sustaining inflation concerns and reinforcing expectations that monetary policy will remain restrictive across major economies." Silver could find support in industrial demand, he adds, noting a rise in Chinese industrial output led by equipment and high-tech manufacturing. "Sustained strength in these sectors could support silver consumption." Silver for December delivery is off 0.1% in New York at $64.05 a troy ounce. Gold is down 0.5% at $4,331.10 a troy ounce. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)

1003 ET - Grains are lower in early trading, weighed down in part by the possibility of Russia and Ukraine working on an agreement to stop attacking each other's infrastructure. Both traded strikes overnight after President Trump said they had agreed to halt attacks on energy targets. The prospect of a halt on energy strikes prompted expectations that any agreement could extend to attacks on shipping in the Black Sea, which has affected grain exports. CBOT corn is off 0.8%, wheat is 0.9% lower and soybeans are down 0.2%.(anthony.harrup@wsj.com)

0905 ET - U.S. natural gas futures add to Monday's gains as more days of hot weather are seen before cooling demand is set to taper off toward the end of the month. After strong demand the next five days, "national demand eases to moderate then low levels for days 6-15 as the southern U.S. cools several degrees and with highs of mostly 80s to lower 90s," NatGasWeather.com says in a note. "In addition, the northern half of the U.S. will be perfect temperature-wise with comfortable highs of 60s-80s for light demand." Nymex natural gas is up 1.4% at $2.936/mmBtu.(anthony.harrup@wsj.com)

0850 ET - Oil futures are higher in early U.S. trading amid market pessimism about flows out of the Middle East following the outage of a key Saudi pipeline and the increased Houthi threat to Red Sea shipping. "With Hormuz, the Saudi bypass and Bab al-Mandeb all simultaneously exposed, the market is pricing a broader loss of route flexibility, not just a supply shock," Kaynat Chainwala of Kotak Neo says in a note. "Unless there's a credible diplomatic breakthrough, the risk premium looks set to stay elevated." WTI is up 1.6% at $103..00 a barrel and Brent rises 1% at $106.75. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)

0605 ET - Palm oil rose in Asia's trading session. The Bursa Malaysia Derivatives contract for November delivery closed 33 ringgit higher at 4,883 ringgit a metric ton. Prices were likely supported by overnight strength in rival edible oils and persistent concerns of El Nino-related hot-and-dry weather conditions expected to affect output, Kenanga Futures wrote in a note. Kenanga pegs resistance for the November futures contract at 4,950 ringgit a ton. (amanda.lee@wsj.com)

0401 ET - Gold futures are down 0.5% at $4,331.20 a troy ounce in morning European trade. The fall comes as higher energy prices reinforce expectations that the U.S. Federal Reserve will begin raising rates, ANZ analysts say. Higher interest rates weigh on non-yield assets like gold. Tightening oil supplies push Brent crude up 2% to $107.70 a barrel. Expectations of higher inflation mean traders now price in an 86% probability of a hike at next week's meeting, they say.

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