Global Forex and Fixed Income Roundup: Market Talk

Dow Jones
1 hour ago

The latest Market Talks covering FX and Fixed Income. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.

0526 GMT - ​Edmond de Rothschild Asset Management views current interest-rate levels as an opportunity to strengthen its investments in rate assets, Michael Nizard, head of multi-asset and overlay says in a note. The asset manager thus moves to a significant overweight position in bonds--particularly those with short to medium maturities--with a view to generating carry returns and building its portfolio, Nizard says. (emese.bartha@wsj.com)

0521 GMT - The Federal Reserve's unanimous vote Wednesday on an interest-rate hike is key, demonstrating that the Fed intends to preserve its independence in the face of potential political interference, says Edmond de Rothschild Asset Management's Michael Nizard in a note. "Growth has, in fact, held up better than expected, driven in particular by investment and the dynamism of sectors linked to artificial intelligence," the head of multi-asset and overlay says. The labor market, too, remains close to equilibrium, with no deterioration significant enough to justify maintaining an accommodative policy, Nizard says. At the same time, inflation is not moving close enough to the 2% central bank target, while geopolitical uncertainty adds to these persistent price pressures, fueling the rise in energy prices, he says. (emese.bartha@wsj.com)

0517 GMT - The balance of risks for U.S. Treasury yields has shifted to the downside relative to current forward pricing, following the Federal Reserve's unanimous 25-basis-point rate hike on Wednesday, SEB's Jussi Hiljanen says in a note. "The dot plot signals one further hike this year and leaves open the possibility of another in 2027," the chief rates strategist says. With markets discounting 75 basis points of additional tightening by summer 2027, SEB thinks maximum hawkishness in market pricing has been reached, reducing the likelihood of further major bond selloffs, he says. (emese.bartha@wsj.com)

0509 GMT - If the U.S. economy is as strong as Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh thinks, markets might see higher government bond yields, Mirabaud Asset Management's Andrew Lake says. "The next round of earnings will be key to seeing the effects of the Iran war and whether companies continue to be as bullish as the previous quarter," the CIO says. If so, that will continue to support equities and pressure government bonds, he says. Europe, the U.K., and Japan are not in the same situation, so while inflation is picking up, the capacity to raise rates much beyond current levels is limited and risks going into restrictive territory, Lake says. (emese.bartha@wsj.com)

0507 GMT - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is likely to stabilize near term, staying in the 4.90%-5.10% range, says SEB's Jussi Hiljanen in a note. The re-escalation of the Middle East conflict has pushed bond yields higher, while this week's hawkish Fed message added to the pressure, the chief rates strategist says. "With short positioning stretched and Fed pricing aggressive, we expect the 10Y Treasury yield to consolidate in a 4.90-5.10% range for now."

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