Global Commodities Roundup: Market Talk

Dow Jones
Yesterday

The latest Market Talks covering Commodities. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.

1601 ET - U.S. natural gas futures settle up 0.4% at $2.912/mmBtu, ending the week up 2.9% as warm summer weather extended well into September. Last week's 44 Bcf storage build was around half of the average for the week and "just really speaks to how strong power burn has been in September," says Andy Huenefeld of Pinebrook Energy Advisors. The strong power-sector demand and rising LNG feedgas flows are countered, however, by record U.S. production, with prices "really just bouncing back and forth in a relatively tight range,"he adds.(anthony.harrup@wsj.com)

1536 ET - Oil futures end a frantic week little changed with prices easing back after a midweek rise to four-month highs on disruptions to Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline. Reports that the pipeline could resume partial flows within days helped futures to pull back, while concerns remain about the Middle East conflict dragging on and shipping restrictions through the Strait of Hormuz. WTI settles down 1.6% at $100.30 a barrel, for a weekly gain of 0.2%. Brent falls 0.9% to $103.87 a barrel and ends the week down 0.7%.(anthony.harrup@wsj.com)

1359 ET - Gold futures settle higher on the day and on the week, holding their ground despite the rise in Treasury yields and the Fed's first interest-rate increase since 2023. Gold and silver are "once again holding key support levels--a positive sign that the metals' rally may be poised to gain traction despite the higher cost of money," Peter Cardillo of Spartan Capital says in a note. Front month gold settles up 0.6% in New York at $4,385.90 a troy ounce, up 0.5% from a week ago. Silver rises 1.7% to $66.556 a troy ounce for a 3.1% weekly gain. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)

1353 ET - Wheat exports out of Russia and Ukraine for 1Q of the region's 2026/27 marketing year--which began in July--fell to the lowest level seen since 2010/11, according to SovEcon. Combined exports totaled 8 million metric tons for the quarter, compared to 16.2 mmt a year ago and a five-year average of 18.2 mmt. "The global market is therefore set to receive around 8.2 mmt less wheat than last year and about 10.2 mmt less than the recent average--equivalent to nearly half and almost 60%, respectively, of a typical month of global wheat trade," says SovEcon in a note. CBOT wheat futures are down 2%. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)

1344 ET - The number of rigs drilling for oil in the U.S. rose by two this week to 452, or 34 more than a year ago, Baker Hughes reports. Natural gas rigs also rose by 2 to 134, up 16 from a year ago. U.S. producers have increased oil drilling and production since the Middle East conflict pushed prices up. It's coming into to the time when producers set their budgets for next year, although consolidation in U.S. shale has left companies more measured in the way they make decisions, says Andrejka Bernatova, CEO of energy-focused SPAC Dynamix Corporation III. "$100 oil would allow you to drill Tier 2 and Tier 3 acreage now, but I think it's going to take time for boards to be the ones to take the first step, and be willing to increase production on a substantial basis." (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)

1102 ET - Investors could be underestimating the Bank of Japan's resolve to fight inflation. TS Lombard's Rory Green says in a note that the BoJ "is a poor communicator and markets are equally bad at deciphering the bank's statements." He says it took a while for markets to price a September hike after July's forward guidance. "A similar dynamic is at play now," Green says, as the yen weakens 1% against the dollar even after a new BoJ hike to 1.25%. He acknowledges that political pressure against higher rates supports BoJ doves, but notes the U.S. fights in the opposite direction for a stronger yen. Green expects Japan's monetary tightening to end at 2% by July. (paulo.trevisani@wsj.com; @ptrevisani)

1039 ET - Gold prices fall despite lower oil prices, as a stronger dollar and rate-hike expectations weigh on the precious metal. In early U.S. trade, New York futures are down 0.3% to $4,385.60 a troy ounce, on track for a weekly loss of 0.5%. Goldman Sachs analysts, however, maintain their gold-price forecast to $5,400 an ounce by the end of next year. "While higher rates should continue to weigh on gold prices through ETF demand in the near term, our economists expect the Fed to deliver three cuts between September 2027 and March 2028, leaving the terminal forecast unchanged at 3.25%-3.5%," they say. "We therefore expect the impact of tighter monetary policy to be felt primarily through a slower near-term appreciation path rather than a lower terminal gold price." (giulia.petroni@wsj.com)

1031 ET - Russia's move to seize Nestle's business in the country casts a cloud over the terms of a potential sale of the unit, but the Swiss food group faces a limited financial impact otherwise, Vontobel's Jean-Philippe Bertschy says. "While negative for sentiment and raising the prospect of an asset impairment or unfavorable disposal, we expect a marginal financial impact, given Russia's limited contribution to group sales," Bertschy says in a research note. Russia accounted for around 2% of Nestle's sales in 2021, the last disclosed figure, but its current contribution is probably just over 1% given that the company significantly reduced activity in the country since then, the analyst says. Shares fall 2.4%. (adria.calatayud@wsj.com)

1017 ET - Live cattle futures are unchanged in early trading, ahead of the Cattle on Feed report from the USDA later today. Analysts surveyed by WSJ forecast a higher total of cattle on U.S. feedlots, an uptick of 1.8 percentage points from the same time last year. But new placements of cattle on feedlots, as well as marketings of cattle from feedlots, are forecast by analysts to be lower from the same month last year. The monthly report is scheduled to be published at 3 p.m. ET. Lean hog futures are up 0.1% in early trading. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)

1007 ET - U.S. harvesting is underway, but analysts are looking ahead to what 2027 crop budgets may look like. While input costs remain a tough obstacle for farmers to overcome, Purdue University's new projections show that farm acres are expected to be profitable next year. The university's Center for Commercial Agriculture says that corn or soybean acres planted in Indiana next year could make farmers anywhere from just above $100 an acre to as much as nearly $470 an acre--depending on the quality of the soil and the rotation of their crops. "For average productivity soils, current contribution margin estimates range from about $200 to $350 per acre depending on the crop," says Purdue in a release accompanying the forecasts. CBOT grain futures are lower in early trading. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)

1006 ET - U.S. natural gas futures are higher and looking to end the week with gains as extended summer weather keeps up cooling demand in the southern half of the country. National demand is expected to remain high the next couple of days, then moderate before dropping off toward the end of next week, according to NatGasWeather.com. "The overnight data was little changed, thereby maintaining bearish weather patterns for the 3-20 day forecast period," the forecaster adds. Nymex gas is up 0.8% at $2.924/mmBtu. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)

1000 ET - Oil futures are mixed with WTI rising and Brent slightly lower in early U.S. trading. The selloff the previous two sessions has slowed on news that Saudi Arabia notified European customers they won't be receiving any crude next month due to the damaged East-West pipeline, and an attack on a tanker in the Strait of Hormuz, Dennis Kissler of BOK Financial says in a note. Near-term supplies remain tight, and the over $5.00/barrel spread between Oct/Nov WTI is keeping traders on the buying side, he adds. WTI for October delivery is up 1.3% at $103.20 a barrel ahead of Tuesday's expiration, and the most-active November contract gains 0.6% to $97.84. November Brent is off 0.1% at $104.64.

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