Americans like to eat out, and many have continued to head to their favorite spots, even as oil prices and inflation have raised menu prices.

But on Wednesday the Federal Reserve delivered a quarter-point increase in interest rates, delivering another challenge to restaurants that their customers probably never saw coming.

The prospect that borrowing costs stay elevated for longer could make it harder for restaurant chains to keep opening new locations at the pace investors expect.

That matters for stocks whose valuations depend heavily on years of rapid unit growth, and the pain won't be evenly distributed. The impact depends on who is paying for the expansion.

For company-operated chains, the money typically comes from cash flow, cash reserves, and sometimes borrowing. The key is whether the company can generate enough cash to outpace capital spending, and whether it relies on debt to fund new restaurants.

Cash-rich chains are relatively insulated from higher financing costs. Cava is expanding rapidly, but its balance sheet offers substantial protection. The fast-casual chain ended the latest quarter with $323 million of cash and $113 million of investments. It had no borrowings under its credit facility.

Likewise, Chipotle Mexican Grill plans to open 350 to 370 restaurants this year, but had about $678 million in cash and current investments at midyear. Strong new-store economics also help: Chipotle management recently said its Chipotlanes format increased new-store sales, margins and returns.

More mature operators like Texas Roadhouse and Darden Restaurants can be protected for another reason: Their operating cash flow comfortably covers the current capital spending, giving the companies more flexibility to fund development internally.

Texas Roadhouse expects to continue expanding its restaurant base at a mid-single-digit pace this year and plans about $400 million of capital spending, while Darden expects to open 75 to 80 restaurants in fiscal 2027 and spend about $875 million.

Franchise-heavy chains face a different problem. The parent company may have little direct capital at risk, but if borrowing costs rise, its franchisees can become more selective about new sites. That can ultimately lead to fewer openings, slower systemwide sales growth, fewer royalty dollars, and potentially lower earnings than investors had expected.

Still, franchise-heavy chains can be resilient if opening a new restaurant remains sufficiently lucrative. Strong new-store economics can give franchisees more tolerance for rising borrowing costs and keep demand for new locations healthy.

Companies that are opening restaurants aggressively while already carrying floating-rate debt could be more exposed if borrowing costs rise.

First Watch, for example, plans 60 to 62 net openings systemwide and expects $145 million to $150 million of capex for the full year. The company already had $206 million of variable-rate term loans and another $70 million outstanding on its variable-rate revolving credit facility at quarter-end.

Floating-rate debt doesn't necessarily mean every dollar of borrowing becomes more expensive when rates rise. Companies can use interest-rate swaps and other hedges to lock in rates on part of their debt. Still, hedges aren't necessarily permanent or comprehensive. Companies might eventually have to refinance maturing debt or take on new loans.

First Watch relies partly on financing to support its growth. During the first half of 2026, it generated about $62 million of operating cash flow but spent about $70 million on capital expenditures, with only $20 million of cash at quarter-end.

Dutch Bros is also worth watching. It had about $146 million outstanding on a term loan and $50 million drawn on its revolver at the end of June, only part of which is hedged.

Its development remains capital intensive: The coffee chain expects at least 185 systemwide openings and $350 million to $370 million of capital spending this year. But based on its current liquidity, Dutch Bros does not appear to need additional borrowing imminently.

During the first half of this year, the company generated about $197 million of operating cash flow, while spending about $129 million on property and equipment. It ended June with about $269 million of cash, essentially unchanged from year-end.

First Watch and Dutch Bros did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

The Fed's rate increase comes at an already difficult time for much of the restaurant industry. Oil prices have climbed above $100 a barrel, pushing gasoline prices above $4 a gallon and squeezing household budgets, while broader inflation remains stubborn.

Restaurant prices were up 3.4% in August from a year earlier, compared with a 2.2% increase for groceries. That widening gap has given consumers another reason to eat at home. Visits to dining chains fell 2.4% in August from a year earlier, according to Placer.ai.

To be sure, a quarter-point Fed rate hike is unlikely to derail restaurant expansion by itself. For companies like First Watch and Dutch Bros, the immediate increase in interest expense would likely be relatively small.

But the risk could accumulate. If rates remain elevated while construction, labor, and real estate costs stay high, new locations can become financially harder to justify.