Oil Prices Fall for Third Day as Saudi Supply Concerns Ease Slightly

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Oil prices fell for a third day Friday as expectations of restored Saudi pipeline flows eased immediate Middle East supply concerns.

Brent crude futures were down 1.5% at $103.30 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate declined 0.5% to $101.36 a barrel, with both benchmarks paring some losses from earlier in the European day, when WTI dipped below the $100-a-barrel level. The pullback comes after Brent and WTI settled at four-month highs earlier this week at $108.75 and $105.83 a barrel, respectively.

Expectations of a recovery in Saudi export capacity are easing immediate supply concerns, according to MUFG. The pullback in oil prices also reflected some profit-taking after two weeks of gains, ANZ Research analysts said in a note.

Saudi Arabia hasn't provided a timeline for restarting the East-West Pipeline. The Saudi energy ministry said technical teams were assessing the pipeline's integrity and that any new developments would be announced in due course. The kingdom shut down the pipeline as a precaution following attacks targeting energy infrastructure.

It is trying to resume partial operations on the pipeline within days, though repairing damaged pumping stations and fully restoring capacity could take as long as six to eight weeks, The Wall Street Journal reported, citing people familiar with the matter.

The pipeline carries crude from Saudi Arabia's eastern oil fields to the Red Sea port of Yanbu, providing an alternative export route when flows through the Strait of Hormuz are constrained.

A ship-to-ship shuttle service through the Strait of Hormuz could provide Saudi Arabia with another option for getting crude to buyers. The United Arab Emirates' Adnoc has been using its own and hired vessels to carry crude through the strait in convoys under U.S. military protection, before transferring the oil to other tankers waiting in the Gulf of Oman, The Wall Street Journal reported.

Still, the security situation around Saudi Arabia and the region's major oil-shipping routes remains volatile. Iran-backed Houthi forces in Yemen have seized territory in recent weeks, including an island in the Bab al-Mandeb Strait, strengthening their ability to interfere with Saudi Red Sea oil shipments.

The developments add to risks around Saudi Arabia's Red Sea export route as the kingdom works to restore the East-West Pipeline.

Toril Bosoni, head of the International Energy Agency's Oil Industry and Markets Division, said Friday that alternative export routes, higher non-Gulf production and weaker demand have helped cushion the disruption. Flows through the Strait of Hormuz averaged 7.6 million barrels a day in August, 13.1 million barrels a day below prewar levels, while Saudi and U.A.E. bypass routes have offset an average 2.8 million barrels a day of lost Hormuz flows since the conflict began.

Meanwhile, markets are watching for developments in the U.S.-Iran conflict. MUFG said investors are looking toward the next phase of diplomacy, with President Trump expected to meet leaders of Gulf countries next week around the United Nations General Assembly.

Saudi Aramco's extensive domestic supply chain could help speed up repairs to damaged infrastructure. Around 70% of its operational inputs, including pipes, chemicals and wellheads, are sourced locally, according to Rebecca Schulz, a senior oil analyst at the International Energy Agency.

 
 

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