Global Energy Roundup: Market Talk

Dow Jones
Yesterday

The latest Market Talks covering Energy markets. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.

0344 GMT - Iron ore prices are higher in early Asian trade, finding near-term support from a seasonal pickup in steel demand and pre-holiday restocking, says Baocheng Futures analysts in a note. However, the broader outlook remains subdued, as widespread losses among steelmakers raise expectations for production cuts, potentially weighing on iron-ore consumption, they say. Arrivals at Chinese ports and overseas miners' shipments have both risen to year-to-date highs, keeping the market well supplied, they add. While domestic mine output remains broadly stable, ample seaborne supply continues to cap the upside, they say. The most actively traded January iron-ore contract on the Dalian Commodity Exchange is 0.8% higher at CNY716.0 a ton. (jiahui.huang@wsj.com; @ivy_jiahuihuang)

0255 GMT - Samsung Electro-Mechanics is expected to post a 3Q earnings beat on accelerating price increases for multilayer ceramic capacitors and flip-chip ball-grid-array substrates, iM Securities analyst Ko Eui-yeong says. The analyst estimates the South Korean electronics-component maker to report operating profit of 650 billion won in the July-September period, up 150% from a year earlier and about 9% above the market consensus estimate. Profit could have neared 700 billion won in 3Q if the won hadn't appreciated against the dollar from 2Q, Ko says. Strong demand and tight supply for MLCCs, especially for U.S. artificial-intelligence data-center servers, and FC-BGA substrates are driving selling prices higher at a faster-than-expected pace, he adds. (kwanwoo.jun@wsj.com)

0219 GMT - Grid capacity constraints across Asia are tightening as AI and data center-driven power demand continues to grow, BMI says in a note. Regulatory tightening is evident in Thailand, Malaysia and Australia, and could continue as governments seek to protect grid stability, it says. Electricity demand is forecast to grow an average 2.9% annually in Thailand, 3.3% in Malaysia and 5.6% in Vietnam over the next decade, driven mainly by data centers and AI workloads. Supply constraints could peak in Malaysia and Thailand this year before easing as new generation capacity comes online, but pressure could persist into 2027. A renewed push for thermal power is likely, particularly in emerging markets, as policymakers turn to reliable generation to meet rising demand amid tightening grid conditions, BMI says. (yingxian.wong@wsj.com)

0218 GMT - Given a renewed rise in oil prices and continuing corporate cost pass-through, the risk of prolonged inflationary pressure in Japan is mounting, Daiwa Securities economist Kento Minami says. The recent surge in crude oil prices will likely start feeding into electricity bills in early 2027 with a lag of roughly three to eight months, he says. "Oil prices, logistics costs and labor expenses are all rising, sustaining an environment where companies can easily pass cost increases on to retail prices," he notes. Rising costs are likely to prolong food inflation as companies pass higher expenses through to consumers, he adds. In August, food prices excluding fresh items rose 2.7% from a year earlier, Friday's data showed. (megumi.fujikawa@wsj.com)

0036 GMT - Oil is lower in early Asian trade, as supply fears fueled by the outage of Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline ease. Saudi Arabia expects to return about half of the capacity of its damaged East-West pipeline within days, say ANZ Research analysts in a note. The decline in oil prices also reflects some profit-taking after two weeks of gains, they add. Front-month WTI and Brent crude-oil futures are each 1.0% lower at $100.87 a barrel and $103.74 a barrel, respectively.(amanda.lee@wsj.com)

2045 GMT - Crude futures lose ground for a second consecutive session as the supply fears fueled by the outage of Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline ease, and oil continues to make it through the Strait of Hormuz via ship-to-ship loadings and dark transits. While any movement toward renewed negotiations between the U.S. and Iran or stepped up tanker flow through the strait could prompt some major oil price declines, "our long-term outlook still favors much elevated pricing for at least another year even allowing for demand destruction," Ritterbusch & Associates says in a note. WTI settles down 0.5% at $101.91 a barrel and Brent falls 1% to $104.82. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)

2039 GMT - U.S. natural gas futures end a choppy session little changed with some support from a below-average weekly storage build that trimmed the inventory surplus over the five-year average to 118 Bcffrom 148 Bcf. Storage increases have been limited by late-season heat driving power-sector demand. "Despite lingering heat relative to normal, temperatures are still trending lower at this point in the season," Andy Huenefeld of Pinebrook Energy Advisors says in a note. "This points to stronger storage builds in the weeks to come until the onset of more significant heating needs in October." Nymex natural gas slips 0.3% to $2.901/mmBtu. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)

1843 GMT - Precious metal futures settle higher in New York, recovering from a swoon in the wake of yesterday's Federal Reserve interest-rate increase. "My sense is that they will lag while we're in a rate-hiking cycle, and right now we're fairly clearly in a rate-hiking cycle," says David Russell, global head of market strategy at TradeStation. There are a lot of arguments in favor of gold, in terms of central bank buying and an alternative to the dollar, but the current macro environment "is not in any way textbook favorable for gold and silver," he adds. Front-month gold settles up 0.3% to $4,360.20 a troy ounce, andsilver rises 1.8% to $65.47 a troy ounce. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)

1635 GMT - Prices for diesel look to wreak havoc on farmer's budgets looking toward the harvesting season into next year, says the American Farm Bureau Federation in a note. "Diesel prices are on the rise as harvest begins across the country, adding another cost for farmers during one of the most fuel-intensive times of the year," says Faith Parum of the AFBF in a note. The average price of diesel per gallon is nearly $6.40 a gallon, says AAA, which is an all-time record. On-farm diesel prices are nearly double of where they were last year, says Parum, quoting them at $5.45 a gallon. "This shock comes at a time when margins are already thin, and farmers are facing record-high production costs," she says. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)

1527 GMT - Higher fuel prices and costs for other inputs like fertilizer look to be weighing on farmers in South America. "Crude oil is easing off but still at painfully high levels for all corners of the globe as this will surely cause issues in South American planting from fertilizer to acres planted," says Gary Sandlund of Futures International in a note. The weather in growing areas in Brazil and Argentina is dry as well, which looks to impact soil moisture in those regions. Planting in South America typically begins in September, continuing into the end of the year. CBOT corn futures are down 1.1% in morning trade, while soybeans inch down 0.3% and wheat is 0.8% lower. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)

1523 GMT - The U.S. had net injections into natural gas storage of 44 billion cubic feet last week, putting inventories at 3,298 Bcf or 118 more than the five-year average, the EIA reports. The storage build was smaller than the 74 Bcf average for the week and reduced the surplus from 148 Bcf the week before. The injection was below the 49 Bcf estimate in a WSJ survey of analysts. Nymex natural gas futures are up 0.9% at $2.917/mmBtu.(anthony.harrup@wsj.com)

1518 GMT - Gold futures recover losses that followed the Fed's rate hike as Treasury yields move lower and the dollar slips, while oil prices extend their pullback to a second day. "Gold is rangebound with two-way risk, but the large bull market we had seen earlier in the year is considered on pause for now," Pepperstone strategist Ahmad Assiri says in a note. The bull market could continue at some stage with underlying drivers such as central bank demand, macro uncertainty, and fiscal concerns, he says. But "the path of oil prices and their transmission into Fed policy remains the single most important variable from now till year-end." The December contract is up 0.4% in New York at $4,404.90 a troy ounce. Silver rises 2.3% to $66.44 a troy ounce.

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