Basic Materials Roundup: Market Talk

Dow Jones
2 hours ago

The latest Market Talks covering Basic Materials. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires at 4:20 ET, 12:20 ET and 16:50 ET.

1442 ET - Nutrien continues to execute well, with tailwinds in agriculture and fertilizer fundamentals. RBC's Andrew Wong says in a report that stronger crop prices, steady potash fundamentals and higher nitrogen prices should drive Ebitda growth in 2027. Management itself is saying that market conditions have strengthened, as seen in elevated corn prices due to lower yields in the U.S. and higher wheat prices as Russia-Ukraine conflict re-escalates. Because of this, he expects higher revisions on the company's estimates "that currently call for lower EBITDA into 2027." Long-term, Wong sees potential for further improvements in costs and cash conversion on the business side of things as well. (adriano.marchese@wsj.com)

1359 ET - Gold futures settle higher on the day and on the week, holding their ground despite the rise in Treasury yields and the Fed's first interest-rate increase since 2023. Gold and silver are "once again holding key support levels--a positive sign that the metals' rally may be poised to gain traction despite the higher cost of money," Peter Cardillo of Spartan Capital says in a note. Front month gold settles up 0.6% in New York at $4,385.90 a troy ounce, up 0.5% from a week ago. Silver rises 1.7% to $66.556 a troy ounce for a 3.1% weekly gain. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)

0007 ET - Explosive maker Dyno Nobel's FY 2031 ambitions put focus on growth, supported by global mining and industrialization demand, and so-called energetics for defense, says UBS. "We look for greater detail on the building blocks of the [high single-digit percentage] revenue growth target, given this represents the key difference between the A$800 million EBIT target and current market expectations," the bank says. The EBIT target is roughly 30% above consensus, it says. Dyno's FY 2026 trading update is, meanwhile, mixed, says UBS. Revised profit guidance is 5% above consensus, while EBIT guidance is 2% below, it says. UBS keeps a neutral rating and A$3.75/share target on the stock. Shares are down 2.0% at A$4.075. (rhiannon.hoyle@wsj.com; @RhiannonHoyle)

2344 ET - Iron ore prices are higher in early Asian trade, finding near-term support from a seasonal pickup in steel demand and pre-holiday restocking, says Baocheng Futures analysts in a note. However, the broader outlook remains subdued, as widespread losses among steelmakers raise expectations for production cuts, potentially weighing on iron-ore consumption, they say. Arrivals at Chinese ports and overseas miners' shipments have both risen to year-to-date highs, keeping the market well supplied, they add. While domestic mine output remains broadly stable, ample seaborne supply continues to cap the upside, they say. The most actively traded January iron-ore contract on the Dalian Commodity Exchange is 0.8% higher at CNY716.0 a ton. (jiahui.huang@wsj.com; @ivy_jiahuihuang)

2317 ET - A call by China's main steel industry group for mills to curb output and reduce inventories is weighing on iron-ore prices, according to Commonwealth Bank of Australia's Vivek Dhar. Over 90% of Chinese steel mills are estimated to be unprofitable, with market conditions appearing worse than the steel-market downturns of 2008, 2015 and 2018, he says. "Loss-making steel production in China will likely compel China Mineral Resources Group, which represents Chinese steelmakers, to push harder to structurally lower iron-ore prices with iron-ore miners." CBA expects iron ore to average $95 a metric ton in 4Q, although prices could be lower than anticipated because of headwinds to Chinese steel demand, Dhar says. Spot iron ore is $96/ton, according to S&P Global. (rhiannon.hoyle@wsj.com; @RhiannonHoyle)

2016 ET - Gold gains in early Asian trade. The yellow metal likely climbed as the pullback in oil prices eased concerns around inflation and future rate hikes by the Federal Reserve, say ANZ Research analysts in a note. Investors don't appear to be perturbed by the prospect of tighter monetary policy, they say, citing that holdings in gold exchange-traded funds have risen in recent sessions. A higher interest-rate environment typically weighs on nonyielding gold. Pepperstone's Ahmad Assiri expects gold prices to be rangebound with the earlier bull market on pause for now, though this is expected to eventually resume due to underlying drivers such as central bank demand. Spot gold is up 0.3% at $4,352.15 an ounce.

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