Steel Dynamics and Nucor Fall as Guidance Disappoints. What it Means for the Steel Sector.

Dow Jones
Yesterday

Shares of Steel Dynamics and Nucor each declined Friday as the two steel manufacturers issued quarterly guidance that was below Wall Street expectations even as U.S. steel prices have advanced significantly over the past 12 months.

Steel Dynamics stock fell 2.1% to $240.21 in premarket trading on Friday after ending Thursday up 3%. Nucor stock, meanwhile, dropped 2.3% to $258.93 after rising 1.7% on Thursday.

Fellow steel stock Cleveland-Cliffs declined 0.2% to $12.74 before the opening bell Friday.

Steel Dynamics and Nucor both issued third-quarter guidance that underwhelmed Wall Street. Nucor expects adjusted earnings between $5.55 and $5.65 a share while Steel Dynamics guided for third-quarter earnings of $5.34 to $5.38 a share. The profit outlooks were well below the respective analyst consensus views.

Both companies have been grappling with higher steel raw material input costs and while analysts expected the initial stock market reaction to be negative, the guidance was widely viewed as conservative with the fourth quarter likely benefiting from pricing lags and tightening steel demand.

Tariffs and price reversals remain a risk for the stocks and the steel sector, according to analysts.

While the the quarterly outlooks were modest versus Wall Street expectations, Steel Dynamics said it expects profits from its steel operation segment to be meaningfully higher from the second quarter on metal margin expansion, higher average selling prices, and lower scrap costs. The company also sees shipments increasing.

Nucor, similarly, expects sequential profit growth in all its segments but its raw materials business with weaker pricing on that front.

Higher steel prices have helped boost both Nucor and Steel Dynamics stock. U.S. benchmark steel prices have risen nearly 30% this year to $1,237 a ton as of Thursday. Steel prices have risen 49% over the past 12 months.

Steel Dynamics stock has advanced 45% this year as of the closing bell on Thursday while shares of Nucor have gained 63%.

The bottom line is that even though the quarterly profit outlooks missed Wall Street expectations, there doesn't appear to be worries about the underlying steel businesses or steel demand.

 

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