Global Forex and Fixed Income Roundup: Market Talk

Dow Jones
7 hours ago

The latest Market Talks covering FX and Fixed Income. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.

0830 GMT - Risks for the dollar appear more balanced after the positive impact of Wednesday's U.S. interest-rate rise has been absorbed, although they remain titled towards further gains in the near term, ING's Francesco Pesole says in a note. The Fed's signals for further tightening should allow markets to fully price in another rate rise in October if warranted by data and oil prices, he says. The Fed's pledge of monetary discipline are also supportive for the dollar along with oil prices remaining elevated, he says. ING expects the dollar to stabilize around current levels in coming months. The DXY dollar index is steady at 100.241 after reaching a one-and-a-half-month high of 100.367 overnight. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)

0741 GMT - Gold slips after trading higher in early Asia trade. Its price trajectory is increasingly dependent on the pace of U.S. interest increases, MUFG's Soojin Kim writes. The Fed hiked rates Wednesday after higher energy prices and stronger-than-expected underlying inflation added to price pressures. Inflation and elevated Treasury yields limit gold's upside despite geopolitical and safe-haven providing support, she says. In New York, the precious metal falls 0.5% to $4,365.50 a troy ounce. (adam.whittaker@wsj.com)

0731 GMT - The Bank of England could refrain from raising interest rates on Thursday and at upcoming meetings, leaving sterling vulnerable to potential falls, Commerzbank's Michael Pfister says in a note. Even if the BOE decided during the year that a rate rise was appropriate, the more than four increases priced by the end of next year would still be unlikely, he says. "Given the weak labor market, we continue to see the potential that the BOE will disappoint expectations more than other central banks, and therefore we stand by our expectation of a weaker pound." The BOE's decision is at 1100 GMT. Sterling rises 0.1% to $1.3390 as the dollar eases but falls 0.1% versus the euro to 0.8569 per euro. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)

0727 GMT - Yields on U.K. government bonds, or gilts, decline modestly ahead of a Bank of England rate decision at 1100 GMT. Investors expect rates to stay on hold and will watch the vote split and the BOE's evaluation of the second-order inflation effects. Markets price in only a 19% chance of a rate hike on Thursday but fully expect three quarter-point rate increases by March 2027, LSEG data show. The U.S. Federal Reserve raised interest rates on Wednesday as widely expected. Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh emphasized that inflation remains very high, raising the prospects of more Fed rate rises at future meetings. Ten-year gilt yields fall 1.3 basis points to last trade at 5.282%, Tradeweb data show.(miriam.mukuru@wsj.com)

0720 GMT - Singapore's "blockbuster" nonoil domestic exports performance in August is likely to be unsustainable, OCBC's Selena Ling says in a report. NODX jumped 46.2% from a year earlier last month, marking its strongest expansion since October 1988. However, the latest data may have overstated the underlying momentum as there was a low base. Looking ahead, memory prices, advanced packaging demand and artificial-intelligence server orders could be indicators of how NODX would fare. OCBC raises its forecast for Singapore's 2026 NODX growth to 20% from 15.2% previously, after partly factoring in that exports have risen 22.4% in the first eight months of this year from a year earlier. (amanda.lee@wsj.com)

0711 GMT - The Bank of England is widely expected to announce a reduction in the pace of quantitative tightening for the year starting in October at its decision later. Quantitative tightening is the process of shrinking the BOE's gilt holdings purchased during previous periods of quantitative easing. Analysts estimate the BOE could reduce the pace to around 50 billion pounds annually in the year starting in October, from 70 billion pounds currently. "While this won't dramatically decrease bond yields, it could reduce the upward pressure," XTB's Kathleen Brooks says in a note. Ten-year gilt yields hit a 19-year high of 5.439% this week mainly due to inflation concerns and tracking the global rise in government bond yields. They last trade at 5.292%. (miriam.mukuru@wsj.com)

0705 GMT - Bitcoin rises slightly as U.S. stock futures point to a higher open, recovering from falls after Wednesday's interest-rate rise by the Federal Reserve. The Fed lifted rates by 25 basis points, which was more than 90% priced by markets, according to LSEG. However, the unanimous vote in favor of the move along with officials' projections for at least one more rate increase briefly hit market sentiment. Tech stocks helped to limit the impact of the decision though as the Philly Semiconductor Index advanced, Deutsche Bank analysts say in a note. Oil prices are also lower as headlines suggest an improved outlook for oil flows out of the Middle East, they say. Bitcoin rises 0.5% to $76,474, LSEG data show.(renae.dyer@wsj.com)

0651 GMT - Investors will pay attention to the vote split at the Bank of England interest rate decision due at 1100 GMT and it's assessment of the U.K. second-round inflation effect, Capital.com's Daniela Hathorn says in a note. The BOE is expected to keep interest rates on hold at Thursday's policy decision. Nonetheless, markets fully price in three quarter-point BOE rate rises by March 2027, LSEG data show. The U.S. Federal Reserve raised interest rates on Wednesday, as widely expected, and Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh emphasised that inflation remains high. (miriam.mukuru@wsj.com)

0645 GMT - Eurozone government bond yields open slightly higher, responding to an initial rise in U.S. Treasury yields following the Federal Reserve's well-anticipated 25-basis-point rate hike Wednesday. The rate hike, and perhaps more so the Fed's unanimous vote, increased global bond markets' trust in the Fed's resolve to return inflation to target. "The unanimous Federal Open Market Committee vote says more than the 25-basis point hike itself," CIFC Asset Management's Natalia Lojevsky says. Eurozone bonds might get some input from Spanish and French bond auctions on Thursday. The 10-year Bund yield rises 0.7 basis points to 3.510%, while the 10-year French OAT yield is up 1.2 basis points at 4.471%, according to Tradeweb. (emese.bartha@wsj.com)

0642 GMT - The outlook for Singapore's non-oil domestic exports remains strong, driven by the global artificial intelligence infrastructure build-out, Maybank economists say in a report. NODX rose 46.2% on year in August, marking the fastest pace of growth since October 1988. Semiconductor-equipment demand is still robust amid the expansion in global chip fabrication capacity. China's growing modern infrastructure spending is also driving up demand for specialized machinery and semiconductor chips. Maybank forecasts Singapore's 2026 NODX growth at 18%, above Enterprise Singapore's 14%-16% forecast.(amanda.lee@wsj.com)

0628 GMT - The dollar eases slightly but remains elevated after reaching a one-and-a-half-month high overnight following the Federal Reserve's unanimous decision to raise interest rates by 25 basis points, as anticipated. Fed officials pencilled in at least one more rate rise this year while Chairman Kevin Warsh said inflation is too high and has been for too long. President Trump once again called for lower rates following the decision. "The greatest danger for the dollar lies in the president increasing pressure on the Fed again in the coming weeks, which could lead to renewed doubts about the Fed's independence," Commerzbank's Michael Pfister says in a note. The DXY dollar index trades falls 0.1% to 100.192 after reaching 100.367 overnight. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)

0621 GMT - UBS thinks the Fed will undertake another 25bp rate hike at the December FOMC meeting, says economist Jonathan Pingle. The FOMC is likely to pass on raising rates at the October meeting, just as the Fed waited and evaluated events in June and July, he says. That would avoid raising interest rates six days before the U.S. midterm elections, he adds. UBS forecasts the Fed to hold in 2027 and lower rates at the June 2027 meeting. "We might be staring at a much more hawkish FOMC reaction function for the next four years compared to the last forty," Pingle says.

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