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Investors Need to Learn the Difference Between Uncertainty and Risk in Today's Market","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2667629369","media":"Dow Jones","labels":[],"top":-1,"itemType":null,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2667629369?lang=en_us&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2026-09-16 01:09","pubTimestamp":1789492140,"startTime":"0","endTime":"0","summary":"Litowitz: There is a big difference, and yes, confusing them can cost investors a great deal of money. Risk is when you know the possibilities and the probabilities. Think of a fair dice. I know it will land on one through six, and I know each has a one-in-six chance. Casinos operate this way. Over enough rolls, the house wins because the model is known.On the other end is the black swan - you do not know the possibilities or the probabilities. COVID was that. It came from nowhere.But there is a huge middle ground that gets lost, and it is the most important one for investors right now: What if I know the possibilities but not the probabilities?Litowitz: The first thing to recognize is that it is even more dangerous to say, \"I do not know how to navigate uncertainty, so I will just use my old model.\" That is a terrible idea. You know the world has changed, and you are replaying a model that no longer fits.My book describes three phases. First is metacognition, which means 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